Terrible-1.42 contribution30th of 34 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Nathan Shepherd became a 8-season, 122-game NFL player after going #72. The retained-value model still ranks him 30th of 34 for Mike Maccagnan because NYJ only got 73 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -1.42. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Mike Maccagnan's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
73
on drafting team · 122 full-career
Games started
12
on drafting team · 50 full-career
Snap-z
1.1
5 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
9
modeled; full weighted AV 25
AV / 1k snaps
4.0
2,272 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
-0.4
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Mike Maccagnan's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Mike Maccagnan pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Nathan Shepherd totals -1.42. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationNathan ShepherdGM total -19.4Nathan Shepherd by season -3.1
How much retained production did Nathan Shepherd return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DTs drafted within ±5 picks of Nathan Shepherd since 2010 (14 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Nathan ShepherdSlot-similar peers (14)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (8 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2018
NYJ
16
1
348
-0.2
3
8.6
2019
NYJ
9
3
280
-0.4
1
3.6
2020
NYJ
14
3
458
0.2
2
4.4
2021
NYJ
17
2
633
0.9
1
1.6
2022
NYJ
17
1
553
0.6
2
3.6
2023
NO
17
13
662
1.1
9
13.6
2024
NO
16
9
644
1.0
6
9.3
2025
NO
16
15
772
1.4
4
5.2
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
