Terrible-1.60 contribution41st of 46 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
James Daniels became a 8-season, 91-game NFL player after going #39. The retained-value model still ranks him 41st of 46 for Ryan Pace because CHI only got 54 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -1.60. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Ryan Pace's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
54
on drafting team · 91 full-career
Games started
48
on drafting team · 85 full-career
Snap-z
2.7
4 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
19
modeled; full weighted AV 29
AV / 1k snaps
5.5
3,444 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
-0.1
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Ryan Pace's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Ryan Pace pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. James Daniels totals -1.60. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationJames DanielsGM total -12.2James Daniels by season -3.4
How much retained production did James Daniels return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: Cs drafted within ±5 picks of James Daniels since 2010 (2 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
James DanielsSlot-similar peers (2)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (8 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2018
CHI
16
12
837
0.6
5
6.0
2019
CHI
16
16
1,123
1.2
6
5.3
2020
CHI
5
5
322
-0.6
2
6.2
2021
CHI
17
17
1,162
1.4
6
5.2
2022
PIT
17
17
1,160
1.3
7
6.0
2023
PIT
15
15
945
0.9
5
5.3
2024
PIT
4
3
208
-0.7
2
9.6
2025
MIA
1
0
3
-1.2
0
0.0
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
