Arden Key · Good GM

All NFL teams

Full-career context

These totals follow Arden Key across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.

Games played116

Games started46

Weighted career AV24

Pro Bowls0

AP1 All-Pro0

Career seasons8

Accountability by draft event

What each drafting team received

2018 · Round 3 · #87

LV draft credit

GM Reggie McKenzie

Team games37

Team starts10

On-team AV6

On-team PB / AP10 / 0

Terrible-1.65 contribution51st of 59 picks for this GM

Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.

Long-career hit

Arden Key became a 8-season, 116-game NFL player after going #87. The retained-value model still ranks him 51st of 59 for Reggie McKenzie because LV only got 37 of those games.

His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -1.65. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Reggie McKenzie's leaderboard composite θ.

Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.

The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.

Opportunity

Did he earn the field?

Games played

on drafting team · 116 full-career

Games started

on drafting team · 46 full-career

Snap-z

0.8

3 modeled seasons

Quality

Was that time valuable?

On-team AV

modeled; full weighted AV 24

AV / 1k snaps

4.3

1,409 snaps in rate base

AV-rate z

-0.4

position-year adjusted quality

Recognition

Did the league notice?

Pro Bowls

all on drafting team

AP1 All-Pro

0 AP1

all on drafting team · AP2 context 0

All-Decade

context only

Did this pick move Reggie McKenzie's grade?

The first chart removes the time axis: every Reggie McKenzie pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Arden Key totals -1.65. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.

Aggregate contribution by player

Incremental contribution by season

Above expectationBelow expectationArden KeyGM total -33.3Arden Key by season -3.9

How much retained production did Arden Key return vs. his slot?

Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DEs drafted within ±5 picks of Arden Key since 2010 (14 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.

Arden KeySlot-similar peers (14)

Cumulative value over time

Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.

Games started (cumulative) Pro Bowls AP1 All-Pro AP2 All-Pro

Full-career season history (8 scored seasons)

Year	Team	GP	GS	Snaps	Snap-z	AV	AV/snap
2018	LV	16	13	725	1.1	4	5.5
2019	LV	7	1	196	-0.7	1	5.1
2020	LV	14	3	488	0.4	1	2.0
2021	SF	17	0	459	0.3	2	4.4
2022	JAX	17	4	537	0.3	3	5.6
2023	TEN	17	16	829	1.1	5	6.0
2024	TEN	16	16	816	1.2	7	8.6
2025	TEN	12	8	508	0.2	4	7.9

How to read this

The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.