Terrible-2.94 contribution34th of 34 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Sam Darnold became a 8-season, 100-game NFL player after going #3. The retained-value model still ranks him 34th of 34 for Mike Maccagnan because NYJ only got 38 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -2.94. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Mike Maccagnan's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
38
on drafting team · 100 full-career
Games started
38
on drafting team · 90 full-career
Snap-z
2.5
3 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
17
modeled; full weighted AV 49
AV / 1k snaps
7.1
2,389 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
-0.5
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
2 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Mike Maccagnan's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Mike Maccagnan pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Sam Darnold totals -2.94. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationSam DarnoldGM total -19.4Sam Darnold by season -6.5
How much retained production did Sam Darnold return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: QBs drafted within ±5 picks of Sam Darnold since 2010 (30 players). Dark marks are GOAT-tier benchmarks (Brady, Manning, Mahomes) for orientation.The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Sam DarnoldSlot-similar peers (30)GOAT QBs (Brady, Manning, Mahomes)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (8 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2018
NYJ
13
13
810
0.8
7
8.6
2019
NYJ
13
13
840
0.9
6
7.1
2020
NYJ
12
12
739
0.8
4
5.4
2021
CAR
12
12
771
0.8
6
7.8
2022
CAR
6
6
377
-0.1
4
10.6
2023
SF
10
1
130
-0.7
1
7.7
2024
MIN
17
17
1,110
1.6
14
12.6
2025
SEA
17
17
1,026
1.5
13
12.7
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
