Quenton Nelson · Good GM

All NFL teams

Full-career context

These totals follow Quenton Nelson across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.

Games played129

Games started129

Weighted career AV79

Pro Bowls8

AP1 All-Pro3

Career seasons8

Accountability by draft event

What each drafting team received

2018 · Round 1 · #6

IND draft credit

GM Chris Ballard

Team games129

Team starts129

On-team AV92

On-team PB / AP18 / 3

Excellent+9.54 contribution1st of 82 picks for this GM

Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.

An Excellent pick

Quenton Nelson was Chris Ballard's 1st-best of 82 picks across his career, the best pick of the entire tenure.

His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +9.54. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Chris Ballard's leaderboard composite θ.

The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.

Opportunity

Did he earn the field?

Games played

129

on drafting team

Games started

129

on drafting team

Snap-z

10.1

8 modeled seasons

Quality

Was that time valuable?

On-team AV

modeled; full weighted AV 79

AV / 1k snaps

10.4

8,819 snaps in rate base

AV-rate z

+1.0

position-year adjusted quality

Recognition

Did the league notice?

Pro Bowls

all on drafting team

AP1 All-Pro

3 AP1

all on drafting team · AP2 context 3

All-Decade

context only

Did this pick move Chris Ballard's grade?

The first chart removes the time axis: every Chris Ballard pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Quenton Nelson totals +9.54. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.

Aggregate contribution by player

Incremental contribution by season

Above expectationBelow expectationQuenton NelsonGM total +17.3Quenton Nelson by season +20.5

How much retained production did Quenton Nelson return vs. his slot?

Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: Gs drafted within ±5 picks of Quenton Nelson since 2010 (3 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.

Quenton NelsonSlot-similar peers (3)

Cumulative value over time

Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.

Games started (cumulative) Pro Bowls AP1 All-Pro AP2 All-Pro

Full-career season history (8 scored seasons)

Year	Team	GP	GS	Snaps	Snap-z	AV	AV/snap	PB	AP1	AP2
2018	IND	16	16	1,213	1.7	15	12.4	✓	★
2019	IND	16	16	1,111	1.2	15	13.5	✓	★
2020	IND	16	16	1,167	1.3	14	12.0	✓	★
2021	IND	13	12	819	0.7	9	11.0	✓		·
2022	IND	17	17	1,214	1.5	7	5.8	✓
2023	IND	17	17	1,174	1.4	9	7.7	✓
2024	IND	17	17	1,083	1.2	10	9.2	✓		·
2025	IND	17	17	1,038	1.1	13	12.5	✓		·

How to read this

The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.