HOU draft credit
GM Brian Gaine
Team games57
Team starts53
On-team AV18
On-team PB / AP10 / 0
Bad-0.39 contribution4th of 8 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Justin Reid
Drafted by HOU · GM Brian Gaine · Stanford
All NFL teams
Full-career context
These totals follow Justin Reid across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.
Games played121
Games started117
Weighted career AV34
Pro Bowls0
AP1 All-Pro0
Career seasons8
Accountability by draft event
What each drafting team received
Long-career hit
Justin Reid became a 8-season, 121-game NFL player after going #68. The retained-value model still ranks him 4th of 8 for Brian Gaine because HOU only got 57 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -0.39. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Brian Gaine's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
57
on drafting team · 121 full-career
Games started
53
on drafting team · 117 full-career
Snap-z
4.8
4 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
18
modeled; full weighted AV 34
AV / 1k snaps
4.6
3,892 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.1
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Brian Gaine's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Brian Gaine pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Justin Reid totals -0.39. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationJustin ReidGM total -2.6Justin Reid by season -0.5
How much retained production did Justin Reid return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: Ss drafted within ±5 picks of Justin Reid since 2010 (7 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Justin ReidSlot-similar peers (7)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative) Pro Bowls AP1 All-Pro AP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (8 scored seasons)
| Year | Team | GP | GS | Snaps | Snap-z | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | AP2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | HOU | 16 | 16 | 1,141 | 1.6 | 5 | 4.4 | |||
| 2019 | HOU | 15 | 15 | 945 | 1.2 | 5 | 5.3 | |||
| 2020 | HOU | 13 | 13 | 953 | 1.0 | 4 | 4.2 | |||
| 2021 | HOU | 13 | 13 | 853 | 0.9 | 4 | 4.7 | |||
| 2022 | KC | 17 | 17 | 1,187 | 1.5 | 5 | 4.2 | |||
| 2023 | KC | 16 | 16 | 1,033 | 1.3 | 6 | 5.8 | |||
| 2024 | KC | 16 | 16 | 1,043 | 1.4 | 5 | 4.8 | |||
| 2025 | NO | 15 | 13 | 885 | 1.0 | 6 | 6.8 |
How to read this
- The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
- Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
- AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
- Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.