Roquan Smith · Good GM

All NFL teams

Full-career context

These totals follow Roquan Smith across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.

Games played125

Games started123

Weighted career AV84

Pro Bowls4

AP1 All-Pro3

Career seasons8

Accountability by draft event

What each drafting team received

2018 · Round 1 · #8

CHI draft credit

GM Ryan Pace

Team games69

Team starts67

On-team AV45

On-team PB / AP10 / 0

Terrible-0.98 contribution35th of 46 picks for this GM

Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.

Long-career hit

Roquan Smith became a 8-season, 125-game NFL player after going #8. The retained-value model still ranks him 35th of 46 for Ryan Pace because CHI only got 69 of those games.

His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -0.98. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Ryan Pace's leaderboard composite θ.

Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.

The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.

Opportunity

Did he earn the field?

Games played

on drafting team · 125 full-career

Games started

on drafting team · 123 full-career

Snap-z

6.3

5 modeled seasons

Quality

Was that time valuable?

On-team AV

modeled; full weighted AV 84

AV / 1k snaps

10.5

4,268 snaps in rate base

AV-rate z

+0.6

position-year adjusted quality

Recognition

Did the league notice?

Pro Bowls

4 full-career

AP1 All-Pro

0 AP1

3 full-career · AP2 context 2

All-Decade

context only

Did this pick move Ryan Pace's grade?

The first chart removes the time axis: every Ryan Pace pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Roquan Smith totals -0.98. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.

Aggregate contribution by player

Incremental contribution by season

Above expectationBelow expectationRoquan SmithGM total -12.2Roquan Smith by season -2.0

Cumulative value over time

Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.

Games started (cumulative) Pro Bowls AP1 All-Pro AP2 All-Pro

Full-career season history (8 scored seasons)

Year	Team	GP	GS	Snaps	Snap-z	AV	AV/snap	AP2
2018	CHI	16	15	897	1.3	9	10.0
2019	CHI	12	11	742	0.8	7	9.4
2020	CHI	16	15	1,026	1.9	14	13.6	·
2021	CHI	17	16	1,089	2.1	11	10.1	·
2022	BAL, CHI	17	17	1,047	0.5	17	16.2
2023	BAL	16	16	1,068	1.8	17	15.9
2024	BAL	16	16	993	1.7	14	14.1
2025	BAL	15	14	955	1.5	9	9.4

How to read this

The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.