2015 NFL Draft · Good GM

DESCRIPTIVE → ADJUSTED

Follow the class result into model evidence

The totals on this page describe what happened. Player profiles show pick-level support adjusted for slot, position, era, and observed career window; GM profiles connect those picks to the maturity-adjusted headline estimate.

Open adjusted player evidence Open adjusted GM evidence for Rick Spielman

Class value over time

Descriptive cumulative "value units" across all 256 picks, summed year-by-year. Value = games started + 5×Pro Bowl + 10×AP1 + 3×AP2 per player-season, then summed across the class. Earlier draft classes sit behind the highlighted 2015 line on the same seasons-since-draft axis, so the slope shows whether a class matured fast or needed time.

2015 class highlighted · 35 earlier classes behind it

Top 10 picks by career AV

Ordered by PFR weighted Approximate Value across the player's full career (any team).

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	Career AV	Team GP	Career PB	Career AP1
5.146	Stefon Diggs	WR	MIN	Rick Spielman	90	70	4	1
3.88	Danielle Hunter	DE	MIN	Rick Spielman	83	119	5
1.6	Leonard Williams	DE	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	78	71	3
3.69	Tyler Lockett	WR	SEA	John Schneider	68	161	1	1
1.4	Amari Cooper	WR	LV	Reggie McKenzie	66	52	5
2.45	Eric Kendricks	ILB	MIN	Rick Spielman	64	117	1	1
1.1	Jameis Winston	QB	TB	Jason Licht	63	72	1
1.18	Marcus Peters	CB	KC	John Dorsey	63	45	3	2
1.5	Brandon Scherff	T	WAS	Bruce Allen	62	89	5	1
1.2	Marcus Mariota	QB	TEN	Ruston Webster	60	63

Lower-AV early-round picks (rounds 1–2, AV < 15)

A descriptive filter for first- and second-round picks with full-career weighted AV below 15. It does not account for the expectation at each draft slot and is not a model verdict on the pick.

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	AV	YoT
2.56	Senquez Golson	CB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	0	1
2.37	Devin Smith	WR	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	2	7
1.7	Kevin White	WR	CHI	Ryan Pace	3	8
2.42	Jalen Collins	CB	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	4	2
2.44	Hau'oli Kikaha	OLB	NO	Mickey Loomis	5	3
2.40	Dorial Green-Beckham	WR	TEN	Ruston Webster	7	2
2.62	Quinten Rollins	CB	GB	Ted Thompson	7	3
2.51	Nate Orchard	DE	CLE	Ray Farmer	8	7
2.55	Maxx Williams	TE	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	8	8
2.53	Jake Fisher	T	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	9	4

All picks (256) · sortable below

Each player name links to their year-by-year career page. Each team links to its GM history page.

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	Career AV	Team GP	Team GS	Team PB	Team AP1
1.1	Jameis Winston	QB	TB	Jason Licht	63	72	70
1.2	Marcus Mariota	QB	TEN	Ruston Webster	60	63	61
1.3	Dante Fowler	OLB	JAX	David Caldwell	31	39	1
1.4	Amari Cooper	WR	LV	Reggie McKenzie	66	52	47	1
1.5	Brandon Scherff	T	WAS	Bruce Allen	62	89	89	5	1
1.6	Leonard Williams	DE	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	78	71	70	1
1.7	Kevin White	WR	CHI	Ryan Pace	3	14	5
1.8	Vic Beasley	OLB	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	32	78	60	1	1
1.9	Ereck Flowers	T	NYG	Jerry Reese	35	51	48
1.10	Todd Gurley	RB	LAR	Les Snead	54	73	72	2	2
1.11	Trae Waynes	CB	MIN	Rick Spielman	18	74	53
1.12	Danny Shelton	NT	CLE	Ray Farmer	33	46	45
1.13	Andrus Peat	T	NO	Mickey Loomis	53	111	102	3
1.14	DeVante Parker	WR	MIA	Dennis Hickey	36	93	64
1.15	Melvin Gordon	RB	LAC	Tom Telesco	51	67	62	2
1.16	Kevin Johnson	CB	HOU	Rick Smith	11	35	18
1.17	Arik Armstead	DT	SF	Trent Baalke	45	116	97
1.18	Marcus Peters	CB	KC	John Dorsey	63	45	45	1	1
1.19	Cameron Erving	C	CLE	Ray Farmer	28	29	17
1.20	Nelson Agholor	WR	PHI	Chip Kelly	36	71	62
1.21	Cedric Ogbuehi	T	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	17	35	25
1.22	Bud Dupree	OLB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	46	81	66
1.23	Shane Ray	DE	DEN	John Elway	12	49	15
1.24	D.J. Humphries	T	ARI	Steve Keim	45	98	98
1.25	Shaq Thompson	OLB	CAR	Dave Gettleman	43	123	112
1.26	Breshad Perriman	WR	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	15	27	4
1.27	Byron Jones	CB	DAL	Jerry Jones	38	79	73	1
1.28	Laken Tomlinson	G	DET	Martin Mayhew	55	32	24
1.29	Phillip Dorsett	WR	IND	Ryan Grigson	16	26	7
1.30	Damarious Randall	S	GB	Ted Thompson	21	39	30
1.31	Stephone Anthony	ILB	NO	Mickey Loomis	10	38	20
1.32	Malcom Brown	DT	NE	Bill Belichick	43	60	51
2.33	Landon Collins	S	NYG	Jerry Reese	42	65	60	3	1
2.34	Donovan Smith	T	TB	Jason Licht	57	124	124
2.35	Mario Edwards	DT	LV	Reggie McKenzie	25	30	24
2.36	T.J. Yeldon	RB	JAX	David Caldwell	20	51	30
2.37	Devin Smith	WR	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	2	14	3
2.38	Preston Smith	DE	WAS	Bruce Allen	55	77	50
2.39	Eddie Goldman	DT	CHI	Ryan Pace	36	81	73
2.40	Dorial Green-Beckham	WR	TEN	Ruston Webster	7	16	5
2.41	Devin Funchess	WR	CAR	Dave Gettleman	20	61	40
2.42	Jalen Collins	CB	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	4	24	8
2.43	Benardrick McKinney	ILB	HOU	Rick Smith	44	80	77	1
2.44	Hau'oli Kikaha	OLB	NO	Mickey Loomis	5	27	11
2.45	Eric Kendricks	ILB	MIN	Rick Spielman	64	117	113	1	1
2.46	Jaquiski Tartt	S	SF	Trent Baalke	21	80	64
2.47	Eric Rowe	CB	PHI	Chip Kelly	21	16	5
2.48	Denzel Perryman	ILB	LAC	Tom Telesco	45	90	72
2.49	Mitch Morse	G	KC	John Dorsey	55	49	49
2.50	Ronald Darby	CB	BUF	Doug Whaley	34	29	29
2.51	Nate Orchard	DE	CLE	Ray Farmer	8	34	13
2.52	Jordan Phillips	NT	MIA	Dennis Hickey	32	48	26
2.53	Jake Fisher	T	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	9	48	12
2.54	Ameer Abdullah	RB	DET	Martin Mayhew	22	35	22
2.55	Maxx Williams	TE	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	8	42	21
2.56	Senquez Golson	CB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	0	0	0
2.57	Rob Havenstein	T	LAR	Les Snead	58	148	148
2.58	Markus Golden	DE	ARI	Steve Keim	33	88	51
2.59	Ty Sambrailo	T	DEN	John Elway	14	13	7
2.60	Randy Gregory	OLB	DAL	Jerry Jones	15	50	12
2.61	Ali Marpet	C	TB	Jason Licht	43	101	101	1
2.62	Quinten Rollins	CB	GB	Ted Thompson	7	33	15
2.63	Frank Clark	DE	SEA	John Schneider	49	68	33
2.64	Jordan Richards	S	NE	Bill Belichick	10	44	7
3.65	D'Joun Smith	CB	IND	Ryan Grigson	0	4	0
3.66	Jeremiah Poutasi	G	TEN	Ruston Webster	3	11	7
3.67	A.J. Cann	G	JAX	David Caldwell	39	95	94
3.68	Clive Walford	TE	LV	Reggie McKenzie	7	44	10
3.69	Tyler Lockett	WR	SEA	John Schneider	68	161	134		1
3.70	Jaelen Strong	WR	HOU	Rick Smith	2	19	3
3.71	Hroniss Grasu	C	CHI	Ryan Pace	8	14	12
3.72	Jamon Brown	T	LAR	Les Snead	21	42	30
3.73	Tevin Coleman	RB	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	33	56	20
3.74	Owamagbe Odighizuwa	DE	NYG	Jerry Reese	1	18	0
3.75	Garrett Grayson	QB	NO	Mickey Loomis	0	0	0
3.76	Chris Conley	WR	KC	John Dorsey	23	53	34
3.77	Duke Johnson	RB	CLE	Ray Farmer	28	64	10
3.78	P.J. Williams	CB	NO	Mickey Loomis	19	89	34
3.79	Eli Harold	OLB	SF	Trent Baalke	11	48	24
3.80	Alex Carter	CB	DET	Martin Mayhew	0	1	0
3.81	John Miller	G	BUF	Doug Whaley	31	47	47
3.82	Lorenzo Mauldin	OLB	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	4	26	3
3.83	Craig Mager	CB	LAC	Tom Telesco	4	24	10
3.84	Jordan Hicks	OLB	PHI	Chip Kelly	53	43	40
3.85	Tyler Kroft	TE	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	9	51	35
3.86	David Johnson	RB	ARI	Steve Keim	42	62	47	1	1
3.87	Sammie Coates	WR	PIT	Kevin Colbert	4	20	5
3.88	Danielle Hunter	DE	MIN	Rick Spielman	83	119	90	4
3.89	Sean Mannion	QB	LAR	Les Snead	2	10	1
3.90	Carl Davis	DT	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	13	28	12
3.91	Chaz Green	T	DAL	Jerry Jones	7	18	6
3.92	Jeff Heuerman	TE	DEN	John Elway	5	51	29
3.93	Henry Anderson	DE	IND	Ryan Grigson	21	29	19
3.94	Ty Montgomery	WR	GB	Ted Thompson	17	36	14
3.95	Matt Jones	RB	WAS	Bruce Allen	9	20	7
3.96	Xavier Cooper	DT	CLE	Ray Farmer	4	27	2
3.97	Geneo Grissom	DE	NE	Bill Belichick	3	37	0
3.98	Steven Nelson	CB	KC	John Dorsey	36	52	38
3.99	Paul Dawson	ILB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	1	13	0
4.100	Angelo Blackson	DT	TEN	Ruston Webster	23	29	1
4.101	Trey Flowers	DE	NE	Bill Belichick	34	46	37
4.102	Daryl Williams	G	CAR	Dave Gettleman	39	56	41
4.103	Bryce Petty	QB	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	4	10	7
4.104	James Sample	S	JAX	David Caldwell	1	4	2
4.105	Jamison Crowder	WR	WAS	Bruce Allen	33	79	29
4.106	Jeremy Langford	RB	CHI	Ryan Pace	7	28	5
4.107	Justin Hardy	WR	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	8	73	6
4.108	Jalston Fowler	FB	TEN	Ruston Webster	0	42	7
4.109	Clayton Geathers	S	IND	Ryan Grigson	13	56	34
4.110	T.J. Clemmings	T	MIN	Rick Spielman	15	31	30
4.111	Tre' Jackson	G	NE	Bill Belichick	6	13	9
4.112	Arie Kouandjio	G	WAS	Bruce Allen	4	16	8
4.113	Gabe Wright	DT	DET	Martin Mayhew	1	7	1
4.114	Jamil Douglas	G	MIA	Dennis Hickey	7	17	6
4.115	Ibraheim Campbell	S	CLE	Ray Farmer	6	37	11
4.116	Rodney Gunter	DT	ARI	Steve Keim	18	77	38
4.117	Blake Bell	TE	SF	Trent Baalke	5	27	5
4.118	Ramik Wilson	ILB	KC	John Dorsey	14	29	17
4.119	Andrew Donnal	T	LAR	Les Snead	4	21	6
4.120	Josh Shaw	CB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	7	47	14
4.121	Doran Grant	CB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	0	3	0
4.122	Za'Darius Smith	DE	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	57	58	16
4.123	Vince Mayle	WR	CLE	Ray Farmer	0	0	0
4.124	Kwon Alexander	OLB	TB	Jason Licht	43	46	46	1
4.125	Javorius Allen	RB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	14	54	6
4.126	Mike Davis	RB	SF	Trent Baalke	20	14	1
4.127	Damien Wilson	ILB	DAL	Jerry Jones	31	64	22
4.128	Jon Feliciano	G	LV	Reggie McKenzie	26	48	8
4.129	Jake Ryan	OLB	GB	Ted Thompson	14	43	27
4.130	Terry Poole	G	SEA	John Schneider	0	0	0
4.131	Shaq Mason	C	NE	Bill Belichick	54	103	98
4.132	DeAndre Smelter	WR	SF	Trent Baalke	0	2	0
4.133	Max Garcia	C	DEN	John Elway	26	57	41
4.134	Mark Glowinski	G	SEA	John Schneider	41	36	19
4.135	Marcus Hardison	DE	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	0	0	0
4.136	Tray Walker	CB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	0	8	0
5.137	Grady Jarrett	NT	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	57	152	137	2
5.138	David Cobb	RB	TEN	Ruston Webster	1	7	1
5.139	Rashad Greene	WR	JAX	David Caldwell	2	25	1
5.140	Ben Heeney	ILB	LV	Reggie McKenzie	3	19	5
5.141	Martrell Spaight	OLB	WAS	Bruce Allen	6	30	7
5.142	Adrian Amos	S	CHI	Ryan Pace	38	60	56
5.143	MyCole Pruitt	TE	MIN	Rick Spielman	7	18	3
5.144	Mykkele Thompson	S	NYG	Jerry Reese	0	1	0
5.145	Bobby McCain	CB	MIA	Dennis Hickey	28	87	55
5.146	Stefon Diggs	WR	MIN	Rick Spielman	90	70	63
5.147	Brett Hundley	QB	GB	Ted Thompson	5	15	9
5.148	Davis Tull	OLB	NO	Mickey Loomis	0	0	0
5.149	Jay Ajayi	RB	MIA	Dennis Hickey	19	31	19	1
5.150	Cedric Thompson	S	MIA	Dennis Hickey	0	0	0
5.151	David Parry	NT	IND	Ryan Grigson	13	32	32
5.152	Jarvis Harrison	G	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	0	0	0
5.153	Kyle Emanuel	OLB	LAC	Tom Telesco	16	63	32
5.154	Tyeler Davison	DT	NO	Mickey Loomis	31	61	48
5.155	Karlos Williams	RB	BUF	Doug Whaley	4	11	3
5.156	Tony Lippett	WR	MIA	Dennis Hickey	6	25	13
5.157	C.J. Uzomah	TE	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	14	79	61
5.158	Shaquille Riddick	DE	ARI	Steve Keim	0	0	0
5.159	JJ Nelson	WR	ARI	Steve Keim	12	56	15
5.160	Jesse James	TE	PIT	Kevin Colbert	12	56	36
5.161	Neiron Ball	OLB	LV	Reggie McKenzie	1	6	2
5.162	Kenny Bell	WR	TB	Jason Licht	0	0	0
5.163	Ryan Russell	DE	DAL	Jerry Jones	4	1	0
5.164	Lorenzo Doss	CB	DEN	John Elway	0	15	0
5.165	Bradley Pinion	P	SF	Trent Baalke	15	64	0
5.166	Joe Cardona	LS	NE	Bill Belichick	8	160	0
5.167	Damian Swann	CB	NO	Mickey Loomis	1	7	2
5.168	Michael Burton	FB	DET	Martin Mayhew	1	31	7
5.169	David Mayo	LB	CAR	Dave Gettleman	18	59	4
5.170	Tye Smith	CB	SEA	John Schneider	3	4	0
5.171	Nick Boyle	TE	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	9	90	53
5.172	D.J. Alexander	OLB	KC	John Dorsey	7	32	1
5.173	James O'Shaughnessy	TE	KC	John Dorsey	7	23	6
5.174	Cameron Artis-Payne	RB	CAR	Dave Gettleman	5	32	3
5.175	Keith Mumphery	WR	HOU	Rick Smith	2	27	6
5.176	Robert Myers	G	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	0	0	0
6.177	Deiontrez Mount	OLB	TEN	Ruston Webster	1	4	0
6.178	Matthew Wells	LB	NE	Bill Belichick	0	0	0
6.179	Max Valles	OLB	LV	Reggie McKenzie	0	0	0
6.180	Michael Bennett	DT	JAX	David Caldwell	1	14	0
6.181	Kyshoen Jarrett	S	WAS	Bruce Allen	3	16	6
6.182	Tevin Mitchel	CB	WAS	Bruce Allen	0	0	0
6.183	Tayo Fabuluje	T	CHI	Ryan Pace	0	4	0
6.184	Kaelin Clay	WR	TB	Jason Licht	3	0	0
6.185	Tyrus Thompson	T	MIN	Rick Spielman	0	0	0
6.186	Geremy Davis	WR	NYG	Jerry Reese	0	10	0
6.187	Evan Spencer	WR	WAS	Bruce Allen	0	0	0
6.188	Tony Steward	OLB	BUF	Doug Whaley	1	7	0
6.189	Charles Gaines	CB	CLE	Ray Farmer	1	6	4
6.190	Ian Silberman	G	SF	Trent Baalke	0	1	0
6.191	JaCorey Shepherd	CB	PHI	Chip Kelly	1	0	0
6.192	Darius Philon	DT	LAC	Tom Telesco	14	54	19
6.193	B.J. Dubose	DE	MIN	Rick Spielman	0	0	0
6.194	Nick O'Leary	TE	BUF	Doug Whaley	6	35	12
6.195	Malcolm Johnson	TE	CLE	Ray Farmer	0	19	6
6.196	Randall Evans	CB	PHI	Chip Kelly	0	1	0
6.197	Derron Smith	S	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	3	31	0
6.198	Randall Telfer	TE	CLE	Ray Farmer	0	30	19
6.199	Leterrius Walton	DT	PIT	Kevin Colbert	4	36	4
6.200	Quandre Diggs	CB	DET	Martin Mayhew	43	65	40
6.201	Bud Sasser	WR	LAR	Les Snead	0	0	0
6.202	A.J. Derby	TE	NE	Bill Belichick	3	4	0
6.203	Darius Kilgo	NT	DEN	John Elway	3	18	0
6.204	Darren Waller	WR	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	33	18	4
6.205	Josh Robinson	RB	IND	Ryan Grigson	0	5	0
6.206	Aaron Ripkowski	FB	GB	Ted Thompson	2	47	10
6.207	Amarlo Herrera	ILB	IND	Ryan Grigson	0	3	0
6.208	Andy Gallik	C	TEN	Ruston Webster	4	12	8
6.209	Obum Gwacham	DE	SEA	John Schneider	1	0	0
6.210	Christian Ringo	DE	GB	Ted Thompson	5	8	0
6.211	Reshard Cliett	OLB	HOU	Rick Smith	0	0	0
6.212	Anthony Chickillo	DE	PIT	Kevin Colbert	10	65	9
6.213	Kennard Backman	TE	GB	Ted Thompson	0	7	0
6.214	Kristjan Sokoli	DT	SEA	John Schneider	0	1	0
6.215	Cody Wichmann	G	LAR	Les Snead	6	24	18
6.216	Christian Covington	DT	HOU	Rick Smith	20	50	9
6.217	Rakeem Nunez-Roches	DT	KC	John Dorsey	31	34	16
7.218	Anthony Morris	OL	LV	Reggie McKenzie	0	0	0
7.219	Hayes Pullard	ILB	CLE	Ray Farmer	9	0	0
7.220	Neal Sterling	WR	JAX	David Caldwell	2	19	1
7.221	Andre Debose	WR	LV	Reggie McKenzie	0	0	0
7.222	Austin Reiter	C	WAS	Bruce Allen	20	0	0
7.223	Deon Simon	NT	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	2	16	1
7.224	Bryce Hager	ILB	LAR	Les Snead	7	69	5
7.225	Jake Rodgers	T	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	1	0	0
7.226	Bobby Hart	G	NYG	Jerry Reese	30	33	21
7.227	Martin Ifedi	DE	LAR	Les Snead	0	0	0
7.228	Austin Shepherd	T	MIN	Rick Spielman	1	14	0
7.229	Ben Koyack	TE	JAX	David Caldwell	1	48	18
7.230	Marcus Murphy	RB	NO	Mickey Loomis	2	16	0
7.231	Joey Iosefa	FB	TB	Jason Licht	0	0	0
7.232	Edmond Robinson	OLB	MIN	Rick Spielman	3	21	2
7.233	Da'Ron Brown	WR	KC	John Dorsey	0	0	0
7.234	Dezmin Lewis	WR	BUF	Doug Whaley	0	2	0
7.235	Kenny Hilliard	RB	HOU	Rick Smith	0	0	0
7.236	Mark Nzeocha	OLB	DAL	Jerry Jones	5	7	0
7.237	Brian Mihalik	DE	PHI	Chip Kelly	5	0	0
7.238	Mario Alford	WR	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	0	1	0
7.239	Gerod Holliman	S	PIT	Kevin Colbert	0	0	0
7.240	Corey Robinson	T	DET	Martin Mayhew	7	23	8
7.241	Ifo Ekpre-Olomu	CB	CLE	Ray Farmer	0	0	0
7.242	Dexter McDonald	CB	LV	Reggie McKenzie	2	27	6
7.243	Laurence Gibson	T	DAL	Jerry Jones	0	0	0
7.244	Trent Brown	G	SF	Trent Baalke	42	31	28
7.245	Tre McBride	WR	TEN	Ruston Webster	1	9	0
7.246	Geoff Swaim	TE	DAL	Jerry Jones	6	37	18
7.247	Darryl Roberts	CB	NE	Bill Belichick	13	0	0
7.248	Ryan Murphy	DB	SEA	John Schneider	0	0	0
7.249	Akeem King	DB	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	3	5	0
7.250	Trevor Siemian	QB	DEN	John Elway	16	26	24
7.251	Taurean Nixon	DB	DEN	John Elway	0	2	0
7.252	Josh Furman	DB	DEN	John Elway	0	0	0
7.253	Xzavier Dickson	OLB	NE	Bill Belichick	0	0	0
7.254	Rory Anderson	TE	SF	Trent Baalke	0	0	0
7.255	Denzelle Good	T	IND	Ryan Grigson	21	26	20
7.256	Gerald Christian	TE	ARI	Steve Keim	0	0	0

How to read this

"Value units" on the chart is a deliberately simple proxy: per player-season, games-started + 5×PB + 10×AP1 + 3×AP2. It's not a dollar value or θ; it's a single growth-curve number that lets us watch the class mature.
Pre-2013 picks have no per-game snap data → their games-started is approximated from career_games / years-on-team. Their on-chart contribution is dominated by honors.
Career AV is PFR's weighted Approximate Value (full-career, any team).
"On-team" honors only: PB/AP1/AP2 counts above are restricted to seasons on the drafting team. A player traded after Year 4 only gets credit for honors earned in years 1-4.
Active careers still accreting value: this year's chart endpoint isn't the final answer for any class with active players.