Terrible-1.40 contribution16th of 18 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Danny Shelton became a 8-season, 101-game NFL player after going #12. The retained-value model still ranks him 16th of 18 for Ray Farmer because CLE only got 46 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -1.40. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Ray Farmer's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
46
on drafting team · 101 full-career
Games started
45
on drafting team · 72 full-career
Snap-z
2.8
3 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
17
modeled; full weighted AV 33
AV / 1k snaps
9.1
1,864 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.2
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Ray Farmer's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Ray Farmer pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Danny Shelton totals -1.40. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationDanny SheltonGM total -8.1Danny Shelton by season -3.2
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (8 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2015
CLE
16
7
638
1.0
6
9.4
2016
CLE
16
16
752
1.4
6
8.0
2017
CLE
14
7
474
0.4
5
10.5
2018
NE
13
3
422
0.2
2
4.7
2019
NE
16
9
596
0.9
12
20.1
2020
DET
12
9
551
0.7
4
7.3
2021
NYG
13
0
370
-0.2
1
2.7
2022
KC
1
0
11
-1.4
0
0.0
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
