Terrible-3.58 contribution18th of 18 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Cameron Erving became a 9-season, 98-game NFL player after going #19. The retained-value model still ranks him 18th of 18 for Ray Farmer because CLE only got 29 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -3.58. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Ray Farmer's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
29
on drafting team · 98 full-career
Games started
17
on drafting team · 58 full-career
Snap-z
0.0
2 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
7
modeled; full weighted AV 28
AV / 1k snaps
5.8
1,200 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
-0.1
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Ray Farmer's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Ray Farmer pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Cameron Erving totals -3.58. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationCameron ErvingGM total -8.1Cameron Erving by season -8.3
How much retained production did Cameron Erving return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: Cs drafted within ±5 picks of Cameron Erving since 2010 (6 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Cameron ErvingSlot-similar peers (6)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (9 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2015
CLE
16
6
472
-0.4
2
4.2
2016
CLE
13
11
728
0.4
5
6.9
2017
KC
13
4
317
-0.5
3
9.5
2018
KC
14
12
860
0.7
8
9.3
2019
KC
13
9
611
0.1
5
8.2
2020
DAL
6
4
295
-0.4
3
10.2
2021
CAR
9
8
598
0.2
4
6.7
2022
CAR
11
0
82
-1.0
1
12.2
2023
NO
3
3
212
-0.7
1
4.7
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
