Terrible-2.86 contribution39th of 39 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Marcus Mariota became a 11-season, 104-game NFL player after going #2. The retained-value model still ranks him 39th of 39 for Ruston Webster because TEN only got 63 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -2.86. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Ruston Webster's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
63
on drafting team · 104 full-career
Games started
61
on drafting team · 82 full-career
Snap-z
3.4
5 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
48
modeled; full weighted AV 60
AV / 1k snaps
12.7
3,769 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.2
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Ruston Webster's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Ruston Webster pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Marcus Mariota totals -2.86. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationMarcus MariotaGM total -5.0Marcus Mariota by season -6.4
How much retained production did Marcus Mariota return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: QBs drafted within ±5 picks of Marcus Mariota since 2010 (27 players). Dark marks are GOAT-tier benchmarks (Brady, Manning, Mahomes) for orientation.The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Marcus MariotaSlot-similar peers (27)GOAT QBs (Brady, Manning, Mahomes)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (11 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2015
TEN
12
11
733
0.7
9
12.3
2016
TEN
15
15
964
1.1
13
13.5
2017
TEN
15
15
943
1.2
12
12.7
2018
TEN
14
13
775
0.7
9
11.6
2019
TEN
7
6
354
-0.3
5
14.1
2020
LV
1
1
65
-0.8
1
15.4
2021
LV
9
0
24
-0.9
0
0.0
2022
ATL
13
13
776
0.9
11
14.2
2023
PHI
3
1
44
-1.0
1
22.7
2024
WAS
3
2
100
-0.8
2
20.0
2025
WAS
11
8
510
0.2
7
13.7
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
