Terrible-2.58 contribution38th of 39 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Angelo Blackson became a 10-season, 129-game NFL player after going #100. The retained-value model still ranks him 38th of 39 for Ruston Webster because TEN only got 29 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -2.58. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Ruston Webster's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
29
on drafting team · 129 full-career
Games started
1
on drafting team · 42 full-career
Snap-z
-0.5
2 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
2
modeled; full weighted AV 23
AV / 1k snaps
2.8
711 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
-0.4
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Ruston Webster's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Ruston Webster pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Angelo Blackson totals -2.58. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationAngelo BlacksonGM total -5.0Angelo Blackson by season -6.2
How much retained production did Angelo Blackson return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DTs drafted within ±5 picks of Angelo Blackson since 2010 (10 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Angelo BlacksonSlot-similar peers (10)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (10 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2015
TEN
16
2
357
-0.3
1
2.8
2016
TEN
13
2
354
-0.2
1
2.8
2017
HOU
9
1
216
-0.7
1
4.6
2018
HOU
16
2
517
0.4
4
7.7
2019
HOU
15
3
494
0.3
6
12.1
2020
ARI
16
8
601
0.7
5
8.3
2021
CHI
17
10
669
1.0
4
6.0
2022
CHI
15
6
493
0.4
2
4.1
2023
JAX
11
0
218
-0.6
2
9.2
2024
ARI
1
0
24
-1.3
0
0.0
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
