2013 NFL Draft · Good GM

DESCRIPTIVE → ADJUSTED

Follow the class result into model evidence

The totals on this page describe what happened. Player profiles show pick-level support adjusted for slot, position, era, and observed career window; GM profiles connect those picks to the maturity-adjusted headline estimate.

Open adjusted player evidence Open adjusted GM evidence for John Dorsey

Class value over time

Descriptive cumulative "value units" across all 254 picks, summed year-by-year. Value = games started + 5×Pro Bowl + 10×AP1 + 3×AP2 per player-season, then summed across the class. Earlier draft classes sit behind the highlighted 2013 line on the same seasons-since-draft axis, so the slope shows whether a class matured fast or needed time.

2013 class highlighted · 33 earlier classes behind it

Top 10 picks by career AV

Ordered by PFR weighted Approximate Value across the player's full career (any team).

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	Career AV	Team GP	Career PB	Career AP1
3.63	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	John Dorsey	94	192	11	4
1.4	Lane Johnson	T	PHI	Howie Roseman	89	168	6	2
1.27	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	HOU	Rick Smith	84	110	5	3
4.109	David Bakhtiari	T	GB	Ted Thompson	84	131	3	2
3.76	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	Tom Telesco	80	156	6
3.69	Tyrann Mathieu	DB	ARI	Steve Keim	67	66	3	3
3.75	Terron Armstead	T	NO	Mickey Loomis	67	97	5
2.36	Darius Slay	DB	DET	Martin Mayhew	66	103	6	1
1.1	Eric Fisher	T	KC	John Dorsey	62	117	2
1.13	Sheldon Richardson	DT	NYJ	John Idzik	61	58	1

Lower-AV early-round picks (rounds 1–2, AV < 15)

A descriptive filter for first- and second-round picks with full-career weighted AV below 15. It does not account for the expectation at each draft slot and is not a model verdict on the pick.

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	AV	YoT
2.47	Gavin Escobar	TE	DAL	Jerry Jones	2	5
2.56	Arthur Brown	LB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	3	4
1.9	Dee Milliner	DB	NYJ	John Idzik	6	3
2.59	Aaron Dobson	WR	NE	Bill Belichick	6	3
2.40	Tank Carradine	DE	SF	Trent Baalke	7	7
2.58	Montee Ball	RB	DEN	John Elway	7	2
1.3	Dion Jordan	DE	MIA	Jeff Ireland	9	8
2.34	Justin Hunter	WR	TEN	Ruston Webster	9	6
2.42	Menelik Watson	T	LV	Reggie McKenzie	9	5
2.62	Christine Michael	RB	SEA	John Schneider	9	6

All picks (254) · sortable below

Each player name links to their year-by-year career page. Each team links to its GM history page.

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	Career AV	Team GP	Team GS	Team PB	Team AP1
1.1	Eric Fisher	T	KC	John Dorsey	62	117	113	2
1.2	Luke Joeckel	T	JAX	David Caldwell	21	39	39
1.3	Dion Jordan	DE	MIA	Jeff Ireland	9	26	1
1.4	Lane Johnson	T	PHI	Howie Roseman	89	168	168	6	2
1.5	Ezekiel Ansah	DE	DET	Martin Mayhew	39	80	73
1.6	Barkevious Mingo	LB	CLE	Mike Lombardi	24	46	16
1.7	Jonathan Cooper	G	ARI	Steve Keim	16	24	11
1.8	Tavon Austin	WR	LAR	Les Snead	26	75	50
1.9	Dee Milliner	DB	NYJ	John Idzik	6	21	14
1.10	Chance Warmack	G	TEN	Ruston Webster	22	48	48
1.11	D.J. Fluker	T	LAC	Tom Telesco	43	59	59
1.12	D.J. Hayden	DB	LV	Reggie McKenzie	16	45	25
1.13	Sheldon Richardson	DT	NYJ	John Idzik	61	58	56
1.14	Star Lotulelei	DT	CAR	Dave Gettleman	48	76	75
1.15	Kenny Vaccaro	DB	NO	Mickey Loomis	34	68	67
1.16	EJ Manuel	QB	BUF	Doug Whaley	10	28	17
1.17	Jarvis Jones	LB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	17	50	35
1.18	Eric Reid	DB	SF	Trent Baalke	33	70	69
1.19	Justin Pugh	T	NYG	Jerry Reese	46	75	75
1.20	Kyle Long	G	CHI	Phil Emery	40	77	76
1.21	Tyler Eifert	TE	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	19	59	37
1.22	Desmond Trufant	DB	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	37	97	97
1.23	Sharrif Floyd	DT	MIN	Rick Spielman	13	44	24
1.24	Bjoern Werner	DE	IND	Ryan Grigson	10	38	16
1.25	Xavier Rhodes	DB	MIN	Rick Spielman	49	104	97	3	1
1.26	Datone Jones	DE	GB	Ted Thompson	10	59	7
1.27	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	HOU	Rick Smith	84	110	110	3	3
1.28	Sylvester Williams	DT	DEN	John Elway	29	68	48
1.29	Cordarrelle Patterson	WR	MIN	Rick Spielman	42	64	22	1	2
1.30	Alec Ogletree	LB	LAR	Les Snead	52	67	67
1.31	Travis Frederick	C	DAL	Jerry Jones	60	96	96	3	1
1.32	Matt Elam	DB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	12	41	26
2.33	Johnathan Cyprien	DB	JAX	David Caldwell	25	60	60
2.34	Justin Hunter	WR	TEN	Ruston Webster	9	35	13
2.35	Zach Ertz	TE	PHI	Howie Roseman	57	123	85	3
2.36	Darius Slay	DB	DET	Martin Mayhew	66	103	94	3	1
2.37	Giovani Bernard	RB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	42	115	30
2.38	Manti Te'o	LB	LAC	Tom Telesco	20	38	34
2.39	Geno Smith	QB	NYJ	John Idzik	57	33	30
2.40	Tank Carradine	DE	SF	Trent Baalke	7	44	8
2.41	Robert Woods	WR	BUF	Doug Whaley	59	57	48
2.42	Menelik Watson	T	LV	Reggie McKenzie	9	27	17
2.43	Johnthan Banks	DB	TB	Mark Dominik	11	50	37
2.44	Kawann Short	DT	CAR	Dave Gettleman	41	99	76	1
2.45	Kevin Minter	LB	ARI	Steve Keim	27	61	37
2.46	Kiko Alonso	LB	BUF	Doug Whaley	33	16	16
2.47	Gavin Escobar	TE	DAL	Jerry Jones	2	62	7
2.48	Le'Veon Bell	RB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	61	62	62	2	2
2.49	Johnathan Hankins	DT	NYG	Jerry Reese	50	52	41
2.50	Jonathan Bostic	LB	CHI	Phil Emery	36	29	17
2.51	David Amerson	DB	WAS	Bruce Allen	20	33	23
2.52	Jamie Collins	LB	NE	Bill Belichick	58	79	59
2.53	Margus Hunt	DE	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	18	53	1
2.54	Jamar Taylor	DB	MIA	Jeff Ireland	18	33	9
2.55	Vance McDonald	TE	SF	Trent Baalke	14	48	30
2.56	Arthur Brown	LB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	3	34	0
2.57	D.J. Swearinger	DB	HOU	Rick Smith	28	32	22
2.58	Montee Ball	RB	DEN	John Elway	7	21	3
2.59	Aaron Dobson	WR	NE	Bill Belichick	6	24	13
2.60	Robert Alford	DB	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	26	88	76
2.61	Eddie Lacy	RB	GB	Ted Thompson	36	51	48
2.62	Christine Michael	RB	SEA	John Schneider	9	26	9
3.63	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	John Dorsey	94	192	185	10	4
3.64	Dwayne Gratz	DB	JAX	David Caldwell	10	40	25
3.65	Larry Warford	G	DET	Martin Mayhew	52	57	57
3.66	Sio Moore	LB	LV	Reggie McKenzie	14	26	22
3.67	Bennie Logan	DT	PHI	Howie Roseman	28	59	51
3.68	Leon McFadden	DB	CLE	Mike Lombardi	2	16	2
3.69	Tyrann Mathieu	DB	ARI	Steve Keim	67	66	57		1
3.70	Blidi Wreh-Wilson	DB	TEN	Ruston Webster	9	34	14
3.71	T.J. McDonald	DB	LAR	Les Snead	24	53	53
3.72	Brian Winters	G	NYJ	John Idzik	31	89	79
3.73	Mike Glennon	QB	TB	Mark Dominik	9	21	18
3.74	Terrance Williams	WR	DAL	Jerry Jones	27	83	68
3.75	Terron Armstead	T	NO	Mickey Loomis	67	97	93	3
3.76	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	Tom Telesco	80	156	137	6
3.77	Dallas Thomas	T	MIA	Jeff Ireland	13	37	26
3.78	Marquise Goodwin	WR	BUF	Doug Whaley	24	39	10
3.79	Markus Wheaton	WR	PIT	Kevin Colbert	13	47	22
3.80	J.J. Wilcox	DB	DAL	Jerry Jones	16	58	38
3.81	Damontre Moore	DE	NYG	Jerry Reese	5	42	0
3.82	John Jenkins	DT	NO	Mickey Loomis	32	49	22
3.83	Logan Ryan	DB	NE	Bill Belichick	41	64	40
3.84	Shawn Williams	DB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	25	119	61
3.85	Jordan Reed	TE	WAS	Bruce Allen	25	65	35	1
3.86	Hugh Thornton	G	IND	Ryan Grigson	16	37	32
3.87	Jordan Hill	DT	SEA	John Schneider	6	27	1
3.88	Corey Lemonier	DE	SF	Trent Baalke	4	42	2
3.89	Brennan Williams	OL	HOU	Rick Smith	0	0	0
3.90	Kayvon Webster	DB	DEN	John Elway	9	54	2
3.91	Duron Harmon	DB	NE	Bill Belichick	30	111	29
3.92	Stedman Bailey	WR	LAR	Les Snead	7	38	8
3.93	Will Davis	DB	MIA	Jeff Ireland	0	15	0
3.94	Brandon Williams	DT	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	52	123	114	1
3.95	Sam Montgomery	DE	HOU	Rick Smith	0	0	0
3.96	Knile Davis	RB	KC	John Dorsey	10	55	2
3.97	Zaviar Gooden	LB	TEN	Ruston Webster	4	24	3
4.98	Matt Barkley	QB	PHI	Howie Roseman	5	4	0
4.99	Nico Johnson	LB	KC	John Dorsey	3	6	1
4.100	Akeem Spence	DT	TB	Mark Dominik	27	56	30
4.101	Ace Sanders	WR	JAX	David Caldwell	3	27	4
4.102	Josh Boyce	WR	NE	Bill Belichick	1	10	3
4.103	Alex Okafor	DE	ARI	Steve Keim	29	42	25
4.104	Jelani Jenkins	LB	MIA	Jeff Ireland	15	53	34
4.105	Duke Williams	DB	BUF	Doug Whaley	8	57	10
4.106	Dion Sims	TE	MIA	Jeff Ireland	8	56	22
4.107	Brian Schwenke	C	TEN	Ruston Webster	14	57	30
4.108	Edmund Kugbila	OL	CAR	Dave Gettleman	0	0	0
4.109	David Bakhtiari	T	GB	Ted Thompson	84	131	131	3	2
4.110	Ryan Nassib	QB	NYG	Jerry Reese	0	5	0
4.111	Shamarko Thomas	DB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	5	48	2
4.112	Tyler Wilson	QB	LV	Reggie McKenzie	0	0	0
4.113	Barrett Jones	G	LAR	Les Snead	0	10	0
4.114	B.W. Webb	DB	DAL	Jerry Jones	14	15	0
4.115	Landry Jones	QB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	4	18	5
4.116	Earl Watford	G	ARI	Steve Keim	15	43	21
4.117	Khaseem Greene	LB	CHI	Phil Emery	3	25	6
4.118	Sean Porter	LB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	0	1	0
4.119	Phillip Thomas	DB	WAS	Bruce Allen	2	8	4
4.120	Gerald Hodges	LB	MIN	Rick Spielman	18	29	10
4.121	Khaled Holmes	C	IND	Ryan Grigson	4	17	9
4.122	J.C. Tretter	T	GB	Ted Thompson	37	31	10
4.123	Chris Harper	WR	SEA	John Schneider	0	0	0
4.124	Trevardo Williams	DE	HOU	Rick Smith	0	0	0
4.125	Johnathan Franklin	RB	GB	Ted Thompson	1	11	0
4.126	William Gholston	DE	TB	Mark Dominik	39	186	91
4.127	Malliciah Goodman	DE	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	5	36	11
4.128	Quinton Patton	WR	SF	Trent Baalke	6	40	18
4.129	John Simon	DE	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	34	7	0
4.130	Kyle Juszczyk	RB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	21	64	32	1
4.131	Marcus Lattimore	RB	SF	Trent Baalke	0	0	0
4.132	Devin Taylor	DE	DET	Martin Mayhew	12	61	18
4.133	Levine Toilolo	TE	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	8	79	57
5.134	Sanders Commings	DB	KC	John Dorsey	0	2	0
5.135	Denard Robinson	WR	JAX	David Caldwell	8	55	13
5.136	Earl Wolff	DB	PHI	Howie Roseman	4	18	7
5.137	Jesse Williams	DT	SEA	John Schneider	0	0	0
5.138	Tharold Simon	DB	SEA	John Schneider	4	11	5
5.139	Montori Hughes	DT	IND	Ryan Grigson	2	16	1
5.140	Stepfan Taylor	RB	ARI	Steve Keim	3	61	4
5.141	Oday Aboushi	T	NYJ	John Idzik	21	15	10
5.142	Lavar Edwards	DE	TEN	Ruston Webster	1	7	1
5.143	Jonathan Meeks	DB	BUF	Doug Whaley	2	38	0
5.144	Kenny Stills	WR	NO	Mickey Loomis	35	44	21
5.145	Steve Williams	DB	LAC	Tom Telesco	4	31	4
5.146	Quanterus Smith	DE	DEN	John Elway	1	15	0
5.147	Steven Means	DE	TB	Mark Dominik	14	11	0
5.148	A.J. Klein	LB	CAR	Dave Gettleman	37	60	23
5.149	Brandon McGee	DB	LAR	Les Snead	1	17	0
5.150	Terry Hawthorne	DB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	0	0	0
5.151	Joseph Randle	RB	DAL	Jerry Jones	7	35	8
5.152	Cooper Taylor	DB	NYG	Jerry Reese	1	16	0
5.153	Stansly Maponga	DE	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	2	24	0
5.154	Chris Thompson	RB	WAS	Bruce Allen	20	66	1
5.155	Jeff Locke	P	MIN	Rick Spielman	6	64	0
5.156	Tanner Hawkinson	T	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	0	4	0
5.157	Quinton Dial	DE	SF	Trent Baalke	15	46	32
5.158	Luke Willson	TE	SEA	John Schneider	12	85	44
5.159	Micah Hyde	DB	GB	Ted Thompson	55	63	33
5.160	Zac Stacy	RB	LAR	Les Snead	11	27	17
5.161	Tavarres King	WR	DEN	John Elway	2	0	0
5.162	Brandon Jenkins	DE	WAS	Bruce Allen	0	5	0
5.163	Jordan Mills	T	CHI	Phil Emery	37	29	29
5.164	Mike Gillislee	RB	MIA	Jeff Ireland	11	3	0
5.165	Sam Martin	P	DET	Martin Mayhew	22	106	0
5.166	Caleb Sturgis	K	MIA	Jeff Ireland	8	32	0
5.167	Josh Boyd	DE	GB	Ted Thompson	4	26	4
5.168	Ricky Wagner	T	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	41	62	47
6.169	Josh Evans	DB	JAX	David Caldwell	13	47	37
6.170	Eric Kush	C	KC	John Dorsey	10	3	1
6.171	Corey Fuller	WR	DET	Martin Mayhew	3	28	2
6.172	Nick Kasa	TE	LV	Reggie McKenzie	0	16	1
6.173	Vinston Painter	G	DEN	John Elway	0	0	0
6.174	Ryan Swope	WR	ARI	Steve Keim	0	0	0
6.175	Jamoris Slaughter	DB	CLE	Mike Lombardi	0	0	0
6.176	David Quessenberry	OL	HOU	Rick Smith	20	2	0
6.177	Dustin Hopkins	K	BUF	Doug Whaley	22	0	0
6.178	William Campbell	OL	NYJ	John Idzik	0	0	0
6.179	Tourek Williams	DE	LAC	Tom Telesco	5	44	6
6.180	Nick Moody	LB	SF	Trent Baalke	2	20	2
6.181	Latavius Murray	RB	LV	Reggie McKenzie	44	45	31
6.182	Kenjon Barner	RB	CAR	Dave Gettleman	4	12	0
6.183	Rufus Johnson	DE	NO	Mickey Loomis	0	0	0
6.184	Mychal Rivera	TE	LV	Reggie McKenzie	10	61	15
6.185	DeVonte Holloman	LB	DAL	Jerry Jones	1	9	2
6.186	Justin Brown	WR	PIT	Kevin Colbert	1	8	1
6.187	Andre Ellington	RB	ARI	Steve Keim	18	61	15
6.188	Cornelius Washington	LB	CHI	Phil Emery	5	31	2
6.189	Mike James	RB	TB	Mark Dominik	2	23	3
6.190	Rex Burkhead	RB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	21	42	1
6.191	Bacarri Rambo	DB	WAS	Bruce Allen	8	13	3
6.192	John Boyett	DB	IND	Ryan Grigson	0	0	0
6.193	Nate Palmer	LB	GB	Ted Thompson	9	24	12
6.194	Spencer Ware	RB	SEA	John Schneider	17	2	0
6.195	Alan Bonner	WR	HOU	Rick Smith	0	0	0
6.196	Jeff Baca	G	MIN	Rick Spielman	0	4	0
6.197	Cobi Hamilton	WR	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	2	0	0
6.198	Chris Jones	DT	HOU	Rick Smith	14	0	0
6.199	Theo Riddick	RB	DET	Martin Mayhew	24	84	19
6.200	Kapron Lewis-Moore	DE	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	0	5	0
6.201	Ryan Griffin	TE	HOU	Rick Smith	14	77	36
6.202	Khalid Wooten	DB	TEN	Ruston Webster	0	3	0
6.203	Ryan Jensen	T	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	43	35	25
6.204	Braden Wilson	FB	KC	John Dorsey	0	0	0
6.205	Stacy McGee	DT	LV	Reggie McKenzie	16	51	18
6.206	Vince Williams	LB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	35	121	69
7.207	Mike Catapano	DE	KC	John Dorsey	3	15	0
7.208	Jeremy Harris	DB	JAX	David Caldwell	0	6	0
7.209	Brice Butler	WR	LV	Reggie McKenzie	9	25	2
7.210	Demetrius McCray	DB	JAX	David Caldwell	8	46	16
7.211	Michael Williams	TE	DET	Martin Mayhew	0	0	0
7.212	Joe Kruger	DE	PHI	Howie Roseman	0	0	0
7.213	Michael Mauti	LB	MIN	Rick Spielman	6	23	0
7.214	Travis Bond	G	MIN	Rick Spielman	0	0	0
7.215	Tommy Bohanon	RB	NYJ	John Idzik	1	36	14
7.216	Charles Johnson	WR	GB	Ted Thompson	7	0	0
7.217	Armonty Bryant	DE	CLE	Mike Lombardi	5	31	4
7.218	Jordan Poyer	DB	PHI	Howie Roseman	57	3	0
7.219	D.C. Jefferson	TE	ARI	Steve Keim	0	4	0
7.220	Ryan Seymour	G	SEA	John Schneider	2	0	0
7.221	Brad Sorensen	QB	LAC	Tom Telesco	0	0	0
7.222	Chris Gragg	TE	BUF	Doug Whaley	1	32	10
7.223	Nick Williams	DT	PIT	Kevin Colbert	22	0	0
7.224	Kevin Dorsey	WR	GB	Ted Thompson	0	3	0
7.225	Eric Herman	OL	NYG	Jerry Reese	0	0	0
7.226	Michael Buchanan	DE	NE	Bill Belichick	2	18	0
7.227	Garrett Gilkey	T	CLE	Mike Lombardi	2	6	1
7.228	Jawan Jamison	RB	WAS	Bruce Allen	0	0	0
7.229	Everett Dawkins	DT	MIN	Rick Spielman	0	0	0
7.230	Kerwynn Williams	RB	IND	Ryan Grigson	6	1	0
7.231	Ty Powell	DE	SEA	John Schneider	1	0	0
7.232	Sam Barrington	LB	GB	Ted Thompson	4	22	8
7.233	David Bass	DE	LV	Reggie McKenzie	9	0	0
7.234	Zac Dysert	QB	DEN	John Elway	0	0	0
7.235	Steve Beauharnais	LB	NE	Bill Belichick	0	2	0
7.236	Marquess Wilson	WR	CHI	Phil Emery	6	31	14
7.237	B.J. Daniels	QB	SF	Trent Baalke	0	0	0
7.238	Aaron Mellette	WR	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	0	0	0
7.239	David King	DE	PHI	Howie Roseman	1	0	0
7.240	Reid Fragel	OL	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	0	0	0
7.241	Jared Smith	DT	SEA	John Schneider	0	0	0
7.242	Michael Bowie	T	SEA	John Schneider	4	9	8
7.243	Kemal Ishmael	DB	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	13	95	23
7.244	Zeke Motta	DB	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	1	10	1
7.245	Brandon Hepburn	LB	DET	Martin Mayhew	0	0	0
7.246	Carter Bykowski	OL	SF	Trent Baalke	0	0	0
7.247	Marc Anthony	DB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	0	0	0
7.248	Daimion Stafford	DB	TEN	Ruston Webster	7	62	8
7.249	Sean Renfree	QB	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	0	2	0
7.250	Don Jones	DB	MIA	Jeff Ireland	2	20	0
7.251	T.J. Johnson	C	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	5	45	5
7.252	Marcus Cooper	DB	SF	Trent Baalke	14	0	0
7.253	Michael Cox	RB	NYG	Jerry Reese	0	18	1
7.254	Justice Cunningham	TE	IND	Ryan Grigson	0	1	0

How to read this

"Value units" on the chart is a deliberately simple proxy: per player-season, games-started + 5×PB + 10×AP1 + 3×AP2. It's not a dollar value or θ; it's a single growth-curve number that lets us watch the class mature.
Pre-2013 picks have no per-game snap data → their games-started is approximated from career_games / years-on-team. Their on-chart contribution is dominated by honors.
Career AV is PFR's weighted Approximate Value (full-career, any team).
"On-team" honors only: PB/AP1/AP2 counts above are restricted to seasons on the drafting team. A player traded after Year 4 only gets credit for honors earned in years 1-4.
Active careers still accreting value: this year's chart endpoint isn't the final answer for any class with active players.