Excellent+0.65 contribution3rd of 20 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
An Excellent pick
Kyle Long was Phil Emery's 3rd-best of 20 picks across his career.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +0.65. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Phil Emery's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
77
on drafting team
Games started
76
on drafting team
Snap-z
2.0
7 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
44
modeled; full weighted AV 40
AV / 1k snaps
8.7
5,062 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.4
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
3 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 1
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Phil Emery's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Phil Emery pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Kyle Long totals +0.65. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationKyle LongGM total -2.4Kyle Long by season +1.7
How much retained production did Kyle Long return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: Gs drafted within ±5 picks of Kyle Long since 2010 (6 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Kyle LongSlot-similar peers (6)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (7 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2013
CHI
16
16
1,134
1.2
11
9.7
2014
CHI
15
15
1,051
1.0
11
10.5
·
2015
CHI
16
16
1,148
1.2
11
9.6
2016
CHI
8
6
454
-0.4
3
6.6
2017
CHI
10
7
463
-0.3
3
6.5
2018
CHI
8
7
548
0.0
4
7.3
2019
CHI
4
4
264
-0.8
1
3.8
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
