Earl Watford · Good GM

All NFL teams

Full-career context

These totals follow Earl Watford across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.

Games played71

Games started25

Weighted career AV15

Pro Bowls0

AP1 All-Pro0

Career seasons7

Accountability by draft event

What each drafting team received

2013 · Round 4 · #116

ARI draft credit

GM Steve Keim

Team games43

Team starts21

On-team AV12

On-team PB / AP10 / 0

Average-0.35 contribution38th of 74 picks for this GM

Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.

An Average pick

Earl Watford was Steve Keim's 38th-best of 74 picks across his career.

His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -0.35. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Steve Keim's leaderboard composite θ.

The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.

Opportunity

Did he earn the field?

Games played

on drafting team · 71 full-career

Games started

on drafting team · 25 full-career

Snap-z

-2.8

5 modeled seasons

Quality

Was that time valuable?

On-team AV

modeled; full weighted AV 15

AV / 1k snaps

6.6

1,815 snaps in rate base

AV-rate z

+0.1

position-year adjusted quality

Recognition

Did the league notice?

Pro Bowls

all on drafting team

AP1 All-Pro

0 AP1

all on drafting team · AP2 context 0

All-Decade

context only

Did this pick move Steve Keim's grade?

The first chart removes the time axis: every Steve Keim pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Earl Watford totals -0.35. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.

Aggregate contribution by player

Incremental contribution by season

Above expectationBelow expectationEarl WatfordGM total -16.6Earl Watford by season -0.9

How much retained production did Earl Watford return vs. his slot?

Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: Gs drafted within ±5 picks of Earl Watford since 2010 (12 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.

Earl WatfordSlot-similar peers (12)

Cumulative value over time

Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.

Games started (cumulative) Pro Bowls AP1 All-Pro AP2 All-Pro

Full-career season history (7 scored seasons)

Year	Team	GP	GS	Snaps	Snap-z	AV	AV/snap
2013	ARI	0	0	0	-1.3	0	—
2014	ARI	10	0	61	-1.3	1	16.4
2015	ARI	8	3	231	-0.9	2	8.7
2016	ARI	15	12	869	0.6	5	5.8
2017	ARI	10	9	654	0.1	4	6.1
2018	CLE	13	0	57	-1.2	1	17.5
2019	TB	15	4	411	-0.4	3	7.3

How to read this

The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.