Terrible-1.87 contribution18th of 19 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Oday Aboushi became a 10-season, 85-game NFL player after going #141. The retained-value model still ranks him 18th of 19 for John Idzik because NYJ only got 15 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -1.87. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from John Idzik's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
15
on drafting team · 85 full-career
Games started
10
on drafting team · 51 full-career
Snap-z
-1.0
2 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
5
modeled; full weighted AV 21
AV / 1k snaps
6.4
781 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.0
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move John Idzik's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every John Idzik pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Oday Aboushi totals -1.87. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationOday AboushiGM total -13.1Oday Aboushi by season -4.7
How much retained production did Oday Aboushi return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: Ts drafted within ±5 picks of Oday Aboushi since 2010 (8 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Oday AboushiSlot-similar peers (8)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (10 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2013
NYJ
0
0
0
-1.5
0
—
2014
NYJ
15
10
781
0.5
5
6.4
2015
HOU
7
5
424
-0.5
2
4.7
2016
HOU
4
4
272
-0.8
1
3.7
2017
SEA
8
8
596
-0.0
4
6.7
2018
ARI
8
6
428
-0.3
2
4.7
2019
DET
7
2
168
-1.0
1
6.0
2020
DET
16
10
693
0.3
4
5.8
2021
LAC
5
4
315
-0.5
2
6.3
2022
LAR
15
6
401
-0.4
3
7.5
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
