Terrible-3.15 contribution34th of 34 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Robert Woods became a 12-season, 171-game NFL player after going #41. The retained-value model still ranks him 34th of 34 for Doug Whaley because BUF only got 57 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -3.15. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Doug Whaley's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
57
on drafting team · 171 full-career
Games started
48
on drafting team · 145 full-career
Snap-z
5.0
4 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
21
modeled; full weighted AV 59
AV / 1k snaps
6.2
3,397 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.0
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Doug Whaley's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Doug Whaley pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Robert Woods totals -3.15. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationRobert WoodsGM total -16.2Robert Woods by season -6.9
How much retained production did Robert Woods return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: WRs drafted within ±5 picks of Robert Woods since 2010 (24 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Robert WoodsSlot-similar peers (24)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (12 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2013
BUF
14
14
955
1.6
5
5.2
2014
BUF
16
15
988
1.7
5
5.1
2015
BUF
14
13
820
1.2
5
6.1
2016
BUF
13
11
634
0.6
6
9.5
2017
LAR
12
12
646
0.8
8
12.4
2018
LAR
16
16
1,048
2.2
14
13.4
2019
LAR
15
15
988
2.0
9
9.1
2020
LAR
16
16
1,002
2.1
7
7.0
2021
LAR
9
9
548
0.6
5
9.1
2022
TEN
17
17
856
1.5
4
4.7
2023
HOU
14
13
690
0.9
4
5.8
2024
HOU
15
3
432
0.2
2
4.6
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
