Terrible-3.09 contribution33rd of 34 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Marquise Goodwin became a 11-season, 114-game NFL player after going #78. The retained-value model still ranks him 33rd of 34 for Doug Whaley because BUF only got 39 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -3.09. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Doug Whaley's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
39
on drafting team · 114 full-career
Games started
10
on drafting team · 44 full-career
Snap-z
-2.9
5 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
6
modeled; full weighted AV 24
AV / 1k snaps
4.8
1,238 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
-0.1
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Doug Whaley's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Doug Whaley pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Marquise Goodwin totals -3.09. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationMarquise GoodwinGM total -16.2Marquise Goodwin by season -7.5
How much retained production did Marquise Goodwin return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: WRs drafted within ±5 picks of Marquise Goodwin since 2010 (26 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Marquise GoodwinSlot-similar peers (26)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (11 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2013
BUF
12
3
385
-0.1
2
5.2
2014
BUF
10
1
170
-0.8
0
0.0
2015
BUF
2
0
42
-1.2
0
0.0
2016
BUF
15
13
641
0.6
4
6.2
2017
SF
16
14
770
1.2
8
10.4
2018
SF
11
8
439
0.2
3
6.8
2019
SF
9
5
276
-0.4
2
7.2
2020
BUF
0
0
0
-1.3
0
—
2021
CHI
14
4
393
0.1
3
7.6
2022
SEA
13
7
422
0.2
4
9.5
2023
CLE
12
0
122
-1.0
1
8.2
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
