Terrible-0.95 contribution29th of 36 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Akeem Spence became a 10-season, 117-game NFL player after going #100. The retained-value model still ranks him 29th of 36 for Mark Dominik because TB only got 56 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -0.95. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Mark Dominik's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
56
on drafting team · 117 full-career
Games started
30
on drafting team · 57 full-career
Snap-z
1.8
4 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
16
modeled; full weighted AV 27
AV / 1k snaps
7.4
2,171 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
-0.1
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Mark Dominik's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Mark Dominik pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Akeem Spence totals -0.95. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationAkeem SpenceGM total -4.6Akeem Spence by season -2.2
How much retained production did Akeem Spence return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DTs drafted within ±5 picks of Akeem Spence since 2010 (10 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Akeem SpenceSlot-similar peers (10)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (10 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2013
TB
16
14
790
1.2
6
7.6
2014
TB
16
6
562
0.6
4
7.1
2015
TB
8
5
340
-0.2
3
8.8
2016
TB
16
5
479
0.3
3
6.3
2017
DET
16
14
673
1.1
5
7.4
2018
MIA
16
15
748
1.3
6
8.0
2019
JAX, PHI
15
4
417
-1.0
2
4.8
2020
NE
6
0
125
-1.1
1
8.0
2021
WAS
1
0
11
-1.1
0
0.0
2022
SF
7
1
151
-0.7
1
6.6
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
