Terrible-3.59 contribution19th of 19 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Geno Smith became a 13-season, 109-game NFL player after going #39. The retained-value model still ranks him 19th of 19 for John Idzik because NYJ only got 33 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -3.59. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from John Idzik's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
33
on drafting team · 109 full-career
Games started
30
on drafting team · 98 full-career
Snap-z
0.1
4 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
15
modeled; full weighted AV 57
AV / 1k snaps
7.9
1,899 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
-0.3
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
2 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move John Idzik's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every John Idzik pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Geno Smith totals -3.59. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationGeno SmithGM total -13.1Geno Smith by season -8.5
How much retained production did Geno Smith return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: QBs drafted within ±5 picks of Geno Smith since 2010 (5 players). Dark marks are GOAT-tier benchmarks (Brady, Manning, Mahomes) for orientation.The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (13 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2013
NYJ
16
15
985
1.2
7
7.1
2014
NYJ
14
11
816
0.9
7
8.6
2015
NYJ
1
1
65
-0.9
1
15.4
2016
NYJ
2
0
33
-1.0
0
0.0
2017
NYG
2
1
66
-0.9
1
15.2
2018
LAC
5
0
32
-1.1
0
0.0
2019
—
0
0
0
—
0
—
2020
SEA
1
0
18
-1.0
0
0.0
2021
SEA
4
3
203
-0.5
2
9.9
2022
SEA
17
17
1,093
1.7
15
13.7
2023
SEA
15
15
906
1.2
12
13.2
2024
SEA
17
17
1,075
1.5
12
11.2
2025
LV
15
15
863
1.1
7
8.1
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
