Terrible-1.80 contribution47th of 50 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Jamar Taylor became a 8-season, 98-game NFL player after going #54. The retained-value model still ranks him 47th of 50 for Jeff Ireland because MIA only got 33 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -1.80. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Jeff Ireland's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
33
on drafting team · 98 full-career
Games started
9
on drafting team · 44 full-career
Snap-z
-1.0
3 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
5
modeled; full weighted AV 18
AV / 1k snaps
4.1
1,208 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
-0.1
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Jeff Ireland's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Jeff Ireland pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Jamar Taylor totals -1.80. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationJamar TaylorGM total -12.9Jamar Taylor by season -4.3
How much retained production did Jamar Taylor return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DBs drafted within ±5 picks of Jamar Taylor since 2010 (11 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Jamar TaylorSlot-similar peers (11)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (8 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2013
MIA
9
0
95
-1.3
1
10.5
2014
MIA
12
7
396
-0.3
1
2.5
2015
MIA
12
11
717
0.6
3
4.2
2016
CLE
15
14
1,011
1.5
5
4.9
2017
CLE
16
15
1,082
1.6
6
5.5
2018
ARI, DEN
14
4
362
-1.5
1
2.8
2019
ATL, SEA
12
2
304
-1.9
1
3.3
2020
SF
8
2
236
-0.6
2
8.5
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
