2017 NFL Draft · Good GM

DESCRIPTIVE → ADJUSTED

Follow the class result into model evidence

The totals on this page describe what happened. Player profiles show pick-level support adjusted for slot, position, era, and observed career window; GM profiles connect those picks to the maturity-adjusted headline estimate.

Open adjusted player evidence Open adjusted GM evidence for John Dorsey

Class value over time

Descriptive cumulative "value units" across all 253 picks, summed year-by-year. Value = games started + 5×Pro Bowl + 10×AP1 + 3×AP2 per player-season, then summed across the class. Earlier draft classes sit behind the highlighted 2017 line on the same seasons-since-draft axis, so the slope shows whether a class matured fast or needed time.

2017 class highlighted · 37 earlier classes behind it

Top 10 picks by career AV

Ordered by PFR weighted Approximate Value across the player's full career (any team).

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	Career AV	Team GP	Career PB	Career AP1
1.10	Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	John Dorsey	115	126	6	2
1.1	Myles Garrett	DE	CLE	Sashi Brown	104	134	7	5
1.30	T.J. Watt	OLB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	96	135	8	4
1.8	Christian McCaffrey	RB	CAR	Marty Hurney	86	64	4	3
3.67	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	Mickey Loomis	79	126	5
2.63	Dion Dawkins	G	BUF	Doug Whaley	73	143	5
5.182	Aaron Jones	RB	GB	Ted Thompson	67	97	1
1.32	Ryan Ramczyk	T	NO	Mickey Loomis	64	101		1
2.36	Budda Baker	S	ARI	Steve Keim	63	138	8	2
3.69	Cooper Kupp	WR	LAR	Les Snead	63	104	1	1

Lower-AV early-round picks (rounds 1–2, AV < 15)

A descriptive filter for first- and second-round picks with full-career weighted AV below 15. It does not account for the expectation at each draft slot and is not a model verdict on the pick.

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	AV	YoT
2.56	Obi Melifonwu	S	LV	Reggie McKenzie	1	2
2.45	Adam Shaheen	TE	CHI	Ryan Pace	4	5
2.46	Quincy Wilson	CB	IND	Chris Ballard	4	6
2.53	Teez Tabor	CB	DET	Bob Quinn	5	7
2.35	Malik McDowell	DT	SEA	John Schneider	6	5
2.49	Ryan Anderson	OLB	WAS	Bruce Allen	6	6
2.52	DeShone Kizer	QB	CLE	Sashi Brown	6	2
1.9	John Ross	WR	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	7	8
1.31	Reuben Foster	LB	SF	John Lynch	8	2
2.38	Forrest Lamp	G	LAC	Tom Telesco	8	5

All picks (253) · sortable below

Each player name links to their year-by-year career page. Each team links to its GM history page.

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	Career AV	Team GP	Team GS	Team PB	Team AP1
1.1	Myles Garrett	DE	CLE	Sashi Brown	104	134	131	7	5
1.2	Mitchell Trubisky	QB	CHI	Ryan Pace	40	51	50	1
1.3	Solomon Thomas	DE	SF	John Lynch	21	48	30
1.4	Leonard Fournette	RB	JAX	David Caldwell	38	36	36
1.5	Corey Davis	WR	TEN	Jon Robinson	31	56	48
1.6	Jamal Adams	S	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	47	46	46	2	1
1.7	Mike Williams	WR	LAC	Tom Telesco	38	88	62
1.8	Christian McCaffrey	RB	CAR	Marty Hurney	86	64	58	1	1
1.9	John Ross	WR	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	7	27	20
1.10	Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	John Dorsey	115	126	126	6	2
1.11	Marshon Lattimore	CB	NO	Mickey Loomis	43	97	97	4
1.12	Deshaun Watson	QB	HOU	Rick Smith	58	54	53	3
1.13	Haason Reddick	LB	ARI	Steve Keim	47	64	31
1.14	Derek Barnett	DE	PHI	Howie Roseman	27	73	45
1.15	Malik Hooker	S	IND	Chris Ballard	26	36	35
1.16	Marlon Humphrey	CB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	62	131	113	4	2
1.17	Jonathan Allen	DE	WAS	Bruce Allen	57	109	108	2
1.18	Adoree' Jackson	CB	TEN	Jon Robinson	30	46	41
1.19	O.J. Howard	TE	TB	Jason Licht	13	59	46
1.20	Garett Bolles	T	DEN	John Elway	56	133	133	1	1
1.21	Jarrad Davis	LB	DET	Bob Quinn	22	58	45
1.22	Charles Harris	OLB	MIA	Chris Grier	16	41	8
1.23	Evan Engram	TE	NYG	Jerry Reese	37	65	51	1
1.24	Gareon Conley	CB	LV	Reggie McKenzie	9	23	20
1.25	Jabrill Peppers	S	CLE	Sashi Brown	32	29	29
1.26	Takkarist McKinley	DE	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	16	49	25
1.27	Tre'Davious White	CB	BUF	Doug Whaley	53	98	98	2	1
1.28	Taco Charlton	DE	DAL	Jerry Jones	9	27	7
1.29	David Njoku	TE	CLE	Sashi Brown	27	118	88	1
1.30	T.J. Watt	OLB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	96	135	135
1.31	Reuben Foster	LB	SF	John Lynch	8	16	16
1.32	Ryan Ramczyk	T	NO	Mickey Loomis	64	101	101		1
2.33	Kevin King	CB	GB	Ted Thompson	16	51	42
2.34	Cam Robinson	T	JAX	David Caldwell	43	91	91
2.35	Malik McDowell	DT	SEA	John Schneider	6	0	0
2.36	Budda Baker	S	ARI	Steve Keim	63	138	128	8	2
2.37	Zay Jones	WR	BUF	Doug Whaley	25	36	27
2.38	Forrest Lamp	G	LAC	Tom Telesco	8	25	18
2.39	Marcus Maye	S	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	29	60	60
2.40	Curtis Samuel	WR	CAR	Marty Hurney	30	53	32
2.41	Dalvin Cook	RB	MIN	Rick Spielman	52	73	72	4
2.42	Marcus Williams	S	NO	Mickey Loomis	32	76	76
2.43	Sidney Jones	CB	PHI	Howie Roseman	12	22	8
2.44	Gerald Everett	TE	LAR	Les Snead	22	61	11
2.45	Adam Shaheen	TE	CHI	Ryan Pace	4	27	13
2.46	Quincy Wilson	CB	IND	Chris Ballard	4	29	10
2.47	Tyus Bowser	OLB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	21	89	23
2.48	Joe Mixon	RB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	56	97	88	1
2.49	Ryan Anderson	OLB	WAS	Bruce Allen	6	52	4
2.50	Justin Evans	S	TB	Jason Licht	10	24	21
2.51	DeMarcus Walker	DE	DEN	John Elway	24	36	5
2.52	DeShone Kizer	QB	CLE	Sashi Brown	6	15	15
2.53	Teez Tabor	CB	DET	Bob Quinn	5	22	5
2.54	Raekwon McMillan	LB	MIA	Chris Grier	15	29	28
2.55	Dalvin Tomlinson	DT	NYG	Jerry Reese	50	64	64
2.56	Obi Melifonwu	S	LV	Reggie McKenzie	1	5	1
2.57	Zach Cunningham	LB	HOU	Rick Smith	36	72	66
2.58	Ethan Pocic	C	SEA	John Schneider	32	57	40
2.59	Tanoh Kpassagnon	DE	KC	John Dorsey	21	61	24
2.60	Chidobe Awuzie	CB	DAL	Jerry Jones	28	49	42
2.61	Josh Jones	S	GB	Ted Thompson	11	29	12
2.62	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	PIT	Kevin Colbert	43	63	51	1
2.63	Dion Dawkins	G	BUF	Doug Whaley	73	143	137	5
2.64	Taylor Moton	G	CAR	Marty Hurney	47	145	128
3.65	Larry Ogunjobi	DT	CLE	Sashi Brown	44	60	47
3.66	Ahkello Witherspoon	CB	SF	John Lynch	22	47	33
3.67	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	Mickey Loomis	79	126	95	5
3.68	Dawuane Smoot	DE	JAX	David Caldwell	17	116	17
3.69	Cooper Kupp	WR	LAR	Les Snead	63	104	89	1	1
3.70	Pat Elflein	C	MIN	Rick Spielman	26	44	43
3.71	Dan Feeney	G	LAC	Tom Telesco	35	63	57
3.72	Taywan Taylor	WR	TEN	Jon Robinson	6	29	9
3.73	Jordan Willis	OLB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	8	32	2
3.74	Chris Wormley	DE	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	17	41	15
3.75	Duke Riley	LB	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	19	32	16
3.76	Alex Anzalone	LB	NO	Mickey Loomis	34	38	20
3.77	Daeshon Hall	DE	CAR	Marty Hurney	1	1	0
3.78	Tim Williams	OLB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	2	19	0
3.79	ArDarius Stewart	WR	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	1	15	2
3.80	Tarell Basham	DE	IND	Chris Ballard	13	16	0
3.81	Fabian Moreau	CB	WAS	Bruce Allen	21	60	18
3.82	Carlos Henderson	WR	DEN	John Elway	0	0	0
3.83	Derek Rivers	DE	NE	Bill Belichick	4	14	0
3.84	Chris Godwin	WR	TB	Jason Licht	53	120	90	1
3.85	Antonio Garcia	T	NE	Bill Belichick	0	0	0
3.86	Kareem Hunt	RB	KC	John Dorsey	52	57	39	1
3.87	Davis Webb	QB	NYG	Jerry Reese	1	1	1
3.88	Eddie Vanderdoes	DT	LV	Reggie McKenzie	5	16	13
3.89	D'Onta Foreman	RB	HOU	Rick Smith	17	11	1
3.90	Shaquill Griffin	DB	SEA	John Schneider	30	59	54	1
3.91	John Johnson	S	LAR	Les Snead	29	73	57
3.92	Jourdan Lewis	CB	DAL	Jerry Jones	26	115	64
3.93	Montravius Adams	DT	GB	Ted Thompson	15	45	3
3.94	Cameron Sutton	CB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	21	93	41
3.95	Lano Hill	S	SEA	John Schneider	5	42	6
3.96	Kenny Golladay	WR	DET	Bob Quinn	27	47	39	1
3.97	Cordrea Tankersley	CB	MIA	Chris Grier	4	17	11
3.98	Chad Williams	WR	ARI	Steve Keim	1	16	8
3.99	Rasul Douglas	CB	PHI	Howie Roseman	31	46	18
3.100	Jonnu Smith	TE	TEN	Jon Robinson	29	60	53
3.101	Brendan Langley	CB	DEN	John Elway	1	16	0
3.102	Nazair Jones	DT	SEA	John Schneider	3	20	2
3.103	Trey Hendrickson	OLB	NO	Mickey Loomis	58	45	18
3.104	C.J. Beathard	QB	SF	John Lynch	9	19	12
3.105	James Conner	RB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	49	50	33	1
3.106	Amara Darboh	WR	SEA	John Schneider	1	16	0
3.107	Kendell Beckwith	ILB	TB	Jason Licht	5	16	9
4.108	Vince Biegel	LB	GB	Ted Thompson	5	9	0
4.109	Jaleel Johnson	DT	MIN	Rick Spielman	16	53	20
4.110	Dede Westbrook	WR	JAX	David Caldwell	14	40	25
4.111	Tedric Thompson	S	SEA	John Schneider	9	29	16
4.112	Eddie Jackson	S	CHI	Ryan Pace	45	100	100	2	1
4.113	Rayshawn Jenkins	S	LAC	Tom Telesco	32	61	32
4.114	Samaje Perine	RB	WAS	Bruce Allen	26	21	8
4.115	Dorian Johnson	G	ARI	Steve Keim	0	0	0
4.116	Carl Lawson	OLB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	20	51	14
4.117	Josh Reynolds	WR	LAR	Les Snead	26	64	24
4.118	Mack Hollins	WR	PHI	Howie Roseman	21	28	3
4.119	Tarik Cohen	RB	CHI	Ryan Pace	21	51	22	1	1
4.120	Ben Gedeon	ILB	MIN	Rick Spielman	15	39	22
4.121	Joe Williams	RB	SF	John Lynch	0	0	0
4.122	Nico Siragusa	G	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	0	0	0
4.123	Montae Nicholson	S	WAS	Bruce Allen	10	35	26
4.124	Jalen Reeves-Maybin	LB	DET	Bob Quinn	17	97	14	1
4.125	Samson Ebukam	OLB	LAR	Les Snead	38	64	35
4.126	Howard Wilson	CB	CLE	Sashi Brown	0	0	0
4.127	Michael Roberts	TE	DET	Bob Quinn	1	23	5
4.128	Josh Malone	WR	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	1	20	7
4.129	David Sharpe	T	LV	Reggie McKenzie	4	22	4
4.130	Julién Davenport	T	HOU	Rick Smith	16	27	19
4.131	Deatrich Wise Jr.	DE	NE	Bill Belichick	39	126	61
4.132	Donnel Pumphrey	RB	PHI	Howie Roseman	0	0	0
4.133	Ryan Switzer	WR	DAL	Jerry Jones	3	16	0
4.134	Jamaal Williams	RB	GB	Ted Thompson	33	60	20
4.135	Joshua Dobbs	QB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	9	6	0
4.136	Sean Harlow	G	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	5	1	0
4.137	Zach Banner	T	IND	Chris Ballard	2	0	0
4.138	Ryan Glasgow	DT	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	3	24	3
4.139	Jehu Chesson	WR	KC	John Dorsey	0	12	1
4.140	Wayne Gallman	RB	NYG	Jerry Reese	12	53	14
4.141	Chad Hansen	WR	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	3	15	1
4.142	Carlos Watkins	DT	HOU	Rick Smith	20	42	18
4.143	Marlon Mack	RB	IND	Chris Ballard	20	47	23
4.144	Grover Stewart	DT	IND	Chris Ballard	42	141	109
5.145	Jake Butt	TE	DEN	John Elway	1	8	4
5.146	George Kittle	TE	SF	John Lynch	60	124	116	7	2
5.147	Jordan Morgan	G	CHI	Ryan Pace	0	0	0
5.148	Blair Brown	LB	JAX	David Caldwell	3	28	2
5.149	Damontae Kazee	CB	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	22	52	34
5.150	Jordan Leggett	TE	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	1	15	4
5.151	Desmond King	S	LAC	Tom Telesco	27	53	23		1
5.152	Corn Elder	CB	CAR	Marty Hurney	2	30	1
5.153	Jake Elliott	K	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	24	0	0
5.154	Jeremy Sprinkle	TE	WAS	Bruce Allen	2	59	33
5.155	Jayon Brown	LB	TEN	Jon Robinson	26	66	39
5.156	Brian Hill	RB	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	9	39	3
5.157	Will Holden	T	ARI	Steve Keim	5	11	7
5.158	Nate Hairston	CB	IND	Chris Ballard	9	27	11
5.159	Jermaine Eluemunor	G	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	30	17	3
5.160	Roderick Johnson	T	CLE	Sashi Brown	5	0	0
5.161	Anthony Walker	LB	IND	Chris Ballard	36	57	48
5.162	Jeremy McNichols	RB	TB	Jason Licht	9	0	0
5.163	Matt Milano	LB	BUF	Doug Whaley	57	106	90	1	1
5.164	Isaac Asiata	G	MIA	Chris Grier	0	2	0
5.165	Jamal Agnew	CB	DET	Bob Quinn	19	46	2		1
5.166	Shelton Gibson	WR	PHI	Howie Roseman	0	20	0
5.167	Avery Moss	DE	NYG	Jerry Reese	4	11	2
5.168	Marquel Lee	LB	LV	Reggie McKenzie	9	45	19
5.169	Treston Decoud	S	HOU	Rick Smith	1	10	0
5.170	Rodney Adams	WR	MIN	Rick Spielman	0	0	0
5.171	Nathan Peterman	QB	BUF	Doug Whaley	3	8	4
5.172	Isaiah McKenzie	WR	DEN	John Elway	15	12	0
5.173	Brian Allen	DB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	1	16	0
5.174	Eric Saubert	TE	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	2	30	1
5.175	DeAngelo Yancey	WR	GB	Ted Thompson	0	0	0
5.176	JJ Dielman	C	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	0	0	0
5.177	Trent Taylor	WR	SF	John Lynch	7	43	2
5.178	Davon Godchaux	DT	MIA	Chris Grier	49	52	42
5.179	T.J. Logan	RB	ARI	Steve Keim	0	10	0
5.180	Danny Isidora	G	MIN	Rick Spielman	4	21	3
5.181	Dylan Donahue	DL	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	0	4	0
5.182	Aaron Jones	RB	GB	Ted Thompson	67	97	85	1
5.183	Ukeme Eligwe	LB	KC	John Dorsey	2	14	1
5.184	Nathan Gerry	S	PHI	Howie Roseman	18	46	22
6.185	Caleb Brantley	DT	CLE	Sashi Brown	2	12	1
6.186	Chuck Clark	DB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	31	96	63
6.187	Michael Tyson	S	SEA	John Schneider	1	0	0
6.188	Elijah McGuire	RB	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	6	24	5
6.189	Tanzel Smart	DT	LAR	Les Snead	4	31	4
6.190	Sam Tevi	T	LAC	Tom Telesco	23	58	44
6.191	Xavier Woods	S	DAL	Jerry Jones	38	60	48
6.192	Alex Armah	FB	CAR	Marty Hurney	0	57	4
6.193	Jordan Evans	LB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	9	65	9
6.194	Vincent Taylor	DT	MIA	Chris Grier	5	21	0
6.195	Tanner Vallejo	LB	BUF	Doug Whaley	7	15	0
6.196	Al-Quadin Muhammad	DE	NO	Mickey Loomis	20	4	0
6.197	Jeremy Clark	CB	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	0	2	0
6.198	D.J. Jones	DT	SF	John Lynch	45	61	46
6.199	Chase Roullier	C	WAS	Bruce Allen	24	69	63
6.200	Adam Bisnowaty	T	NYG	Jerry Reese	0	1	1
6.201	Bucky Hodges	TE	MIN	Rick Spielman	0	0	0
6.202	Pita Taumoepenu	OLB	SF	John Lynch	0	6	0
6.203	De'Angelo Henderson	RB	DEN	John Elway	0	5	0
6.204	Derrick Jones	CB	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	0	4	0
6.205	Jeremiah Ledbetter	DE	DET	Bob Quinn	5	16	0
6.206	Sam Rogers	FB	LAR	Les Snead	0	0	0
6.207	Brandon Wilson	RB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	6	60	3
6.208	Rudy Ford	S	ARI	Steve Keim	11	23	1
6.209	Robert Davis	WR	WAS	Bruce Allen	0	4	1
6.210	Justin Senior	T	SEA	John Schneider	0	0	0
6.211	Conor McDermott	T	NE	Bill Belichick	7	12	11
6.212	Kofi Amichia	C	GB	Ted Thompson	0	0	0
6.213	Colin Holba	LS	PIT	Kevin Colbert	0	0	0
6.214	Elijah Qualls	DT	PHI	Howie Roseman	1	6	0
6.215	Brad Kaaya	QB	DET	Bob Quinn	0	0	0
6.216	Marquez White	CB	DAL	Jerry Jones	0	0	0
6.217	Corey Levin	OL	TEN	Jon Robinson	7	88	7
6.218	Leon McQuay	S	KC	John Dorsey	0	1	1
7.219	Stacy Coley	WR	MIN	Rick Spielman	0	6	0
7.220	Ifeadi Odenigbo	DL	MIN	Rick Spielman	11	31	15
7.221	Shalom Luani	S	LV	Reggie McKenzie	2	16	1
7.222	Jalen Myrick	CB	JAX	David Caldwell	0	5	0
7.223	Stevie Tu'ikolovatu	NT	TB	Jason Licht	0	0	0
7.224	Zane Gonzalez	K	CLE	Sashi Brown	14	18	0
7.225	Isaac Rochell	DT	LAC	Tom Telesco	10	51	9
7.226	David Moore	WR	SEA	John Schneider	15	47	14
7.227	Josh Carraway	OLB	TEN	Jon Robinson	0	1	0
7.228	Joey Ivie	DT	DAL	Jerry Jones	0	0	0
7.229	Adrian Colbert	DB	SF	John Lynch	8	21	12
7.230	Josh Harvey-Clemons	S	WAS	Bruce Allen	4	35	0
7.231	Jylan Ware	T	LV	Reggie McKenzie	0	1	0
7.232	Elijah Lee	LB	MIN	Rick Spielman	8	0	0
7.233	Harrison Butker	K	CAR	Marty Hurney	27	0	0
7.234	Ejuan Price	DE	LAR	Les Snead	0	1	0
7.235	Joshua Holsey	DB	WAS	Bruce Allen	1	13	0
7.236	Brad Seaton	T	TEN	Jon Robinson	0	0	0
7.237	Isaiah Ford	WR	MIA	Chris Grier	5	32	3
7.238	Devante Mays	RB	GB	Ted Thompson	0	8	0
7.239	Noah Brown	WR	DAL	Jerry Jones	19	66	18
7.240	Marquez Williams	FB	JAX	David Caldwell	0	0	0
7.241	Khalfani Muhammad	RB	TEN	Jon Robinson	0	0	0
7.242	Elijah Hood	RB	LV	Reggie McKenzie	0	1	0
7.243	Kyle Fuller	C	HOU	Rick Smith	7	9	2
7.244	Treyvon Hester	DT	LV	Reggie McKenzie	3	14	1
7.245	Jack Tocho	CB	MIN	Rick Spielman	0	0	0
7.246	Jordan Carrell	DT	DAL	Jerry Jones	0	0	0
7.247	Malachi Dupre	WR	GB	Ted Thompson	0	0	0
7.248	Keion Adams	OLB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	0	0	0
7.249	Chris Carson	RB	SEA	John Schneider	29	49	48
7.250	Pat O'Connor	DE	DET	Bob Quinn	6	20	3
7.251	Mason Schreck	TE	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	0	23	1
7.252	Matthew Dayes	RB	CLE	Sashi Brown	0	16	0
7.253	Chad Kelly	QB	DEN	John Elway	0	1	0

How to read this

"Value units" on the chart is a deliberately simple proxy: per player-season, games-started + 5×PB + 10×AP1 + 3×AP2. It's not a dollar value or θ; it's a single growth-curve number that lets us watch the class mature.
Pre-2013 picks have no per-game snap data → their games-started is approximated from career_games / years-on-team. Their on-chart contribution is dominated by honors.
Career AV is PFR's weighted Approximate Value (full-career, any team).
"On-team" honors only: PB/AP1/AP2 counts above are restricted to seasons on the drafting team. A player traded after Year 4 only gets credit for honors earned in years 1-4.
Active careers still accreting value: this year's chart endpoint isn't the final answer for any class with active players.