Terrible-1.08 contribution24th of 34 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Marcus Maye became a 9-season, 93-game NFL player after going #39. The retained-value model still ranks him 24th of 34 for Mike Maccagnan because NYJ only got 60 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -1.08. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Mike Maccagnan's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
60
on drafting team · 93 full-career
Games started
60
on drafting team · 81 full-career
Snap-z
3.9
5 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
23
modeled; full weighted AV 29
AV / 1k snaps
5.4
4,257 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.2
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Mike Maccagnan's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Mike Maccagnan pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Marcus Maye totals -1.08. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationMarcus MayeGM total -19.4Marcus Maye by season -2.3
How much retained production did Marcus Maye return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: Ss drafted within ±5 picks of Marcus Maye since 2010 (8 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Marcus MayeSlot-similar peers (8)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (9 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2017
NYJ
16
15
1,114
1.4
7
6.3
2018
NYJ
6
6
428
-0.3
2
4.7
2019
NYJ
16
16
1,130
1.6
6
5.3
2020
NYJ
16
16
1,185
1.7
6
5.1
2021
NYJ
6
6
400
-0.4
2
5.0
2022
NO
10
10
672
0.3
4
6.0
2023
NO
7
7
447
-0.2
3
6.7
2024
LAC, MIA
15
9
527
-1.3
3
5.7
2025
LAC
1
0
24
-1.2
0
0.0
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
