Excellent+4.25 contribution2nd of 34 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
An Excellent pick
Matt Milano was Doug Whaley's 2nd-best of 34 picks across his career.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +4.25. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Doug Whaley's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
106
on drafting team
Games started
90
on drafting team
Snap-z
5.3
9 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
65
modeled; full weighted AV 57
AV / 1k snaps
11.4
5,710 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.7
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
1
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
1 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Doug Whaley's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Doug Whaley pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Matt Milano totals +4.25. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationMatt MilanoGM total -16.2Matt Milano by season +9.6
How much retained production did Matt Milano return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: LBs drafted within ±5 picks of Matt Milano since 2010 (21 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Matt MilanoSlot-similar peers (21)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (9 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2017
BUF
16
16
676
0.7
3
4.4
2018
BUF
13
13
883
1.3
9
10.2
2019
BUF
15
14
1,006
1.6
10
9.9
2020
BUF
10
3
350
-0.2
3
8.6
2021
BUF
16
15
931
1.6
10
10.7
2022
BUF
15
15
971
1.6
19
19.6
✓
★
2023
BUF
5
4
212
-0.7
3
14.2
2024
BUF
4
4
183
-0.8
2
10.9
2025
BUF
12
11
498
0.2
6
12.0
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
