Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Larry Ogunjobi became a 9-season, 134-game NFL player after going #65. The retained-value model still ranks him 11th of 24 for Sashi Brown because CLE only got 60 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -0.51. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Sashi Brown's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
60
on drafting team · 134 full-career
Games started
47
on drafting team · 108 full-career
Snap-z
5.0
4 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
23
modeled; full weighted AV 44
AV / 1k snaps
8.0
2,881 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.0
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Sashi Brown's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Sashi Brown pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Larry Ogunjobi totals -0.51. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationLarry OgunjobiGM total -1.4Larry Ogunjobi by season -0.9
How much retained production did Larry Ogunjobi return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DTs drafted within ±5 picks of Larry Ogunjobi since 2010 (7 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Larry OgunjobiSlot-similar peers (7)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (9 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2017
CLE
14
1
352
-0.1
2
5.7
2018
CLE
16
15
992
2.1
8
8.1
2019
CLE
15
15
844
1.8
7
8.3
2020
CLE
15
13
693
1.2
6
8.7
2021
CIN
16
15
790
1.4
8
10.1
2022
PIT
16
15
691
1.0
7
10.1
2023
PIT
17
17
824
1.7
8
9.7
2024
PIT
15
12
535
0.6
5
9.3
2025
BUF
10
0
218
-0.5
1
4.6
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
