Chad Kelly · Good GM

All NFL teams

Full-career context

These totals follow Chad Kelly across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.

Games played1

Games started0

Weighted career AV0

Pro Bowls0

AP1 All-Pro0

Career seasons2

Accountability by draft event

What each drafting team received

2017 · Round 7 · #253

DEN draft credit

GM John Elway

Team games1

Team starts0

On-team AV0

On-team PB / AP10 / 0

Good+0.03 contribution22nd of 80 picks for this GM

Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.

A Good pick

Chad Kelly was John Elway's 22nd-best of 80 picks across his career.

His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +0.03. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from John Elway's leaderboard composite θ.

The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.

Opportunity

Did he earn the field?

Games played

on drafting team

Games started

on drafting team

Snap-z

-5.3

5 modeled seasons

Quality

Was that time valuable?

On-team AV

modeled; full weighted AV 0

AV / 1k snaps

0.0

1 snaps in rate base

AV-rate z

-0.0

position-year adjusted quality

Recognition

Did the league notice?

Pro Bowls

all on drafting team

AP1 All-Pro

0 AP1

all on drafting team · AP2 context 0

All-Decade

context only

Did this pick move John Elway's grade?

The first chart removes the time axis: every John Elway pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Chad Kelly totals +0.03. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.

Aggregate contribution by player

Incremental contribution by season

Above expectationBelow expectationChad KellyGM total -27.9Chad Kelly by season +0.1

How much retained production did Chad Kelly return vs. his slot?

Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: QBs drafted within ±5 picks of Chad Kelly since 2010 (5 players). Dark marks are GOAT-tier benchmarks (Brady, Manning, Mahomes) for orientation.The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.

Chad KellySlot-similar peers (5)GOAT QBs (Brady, Manning, Mahomes)

Cumulative value over time

Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.

Games started (cumulative) Pro Bowls AP1 All-Pro AP2 All-Pro

Full-career season history (5 scored seasons)

Year	Team	GP	Snaps	Snap-z	AV/snap
2017	DEN	0	0	-1.1	—
2018	DEN	1	1	-1.1	0.0
2019	DEN	0	0	-1.1	—
2020	DEN	0	0	-1.0	—
2021	DEN	0	0	-1.0	—

How to read this

The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.