Terrible-2.19 contribution23rd of 24 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Jabrill Peppers became a 9-season, 113-game NFL player after going #25. The retained-value model still ranks him 23rd of 24 for Sashi Brown because CLE only got 29 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -2.19. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Sashi Brown's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
29
on drafting team · 113 full-career
Games started
29
on drafting team · 87 full-career
Snap-z
2.3
2 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
12
modeled; full weighted AV 32
AV / 1k snaps
5.9
2,019 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.4
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Sashi Brown's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Sashi Brown pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Jabrill Peppers totals -2.19. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationJabrill PeppersGM total -1.4Jabrill Peppers by season -5.3
How much retained production did Jabrill Peppers return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: Ss drafted within ±5 picks of Jabrill Peppers since 2010 (4 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Jabrill PeppersSlot-similar peers (4)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (9 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2017
CLE
13
13
973
1.0
5
5.1
2018
CLE
16
16
1,046
1.3
7
6.7
2019
NYG
11
11
717
0.6
4
5.6
2020
NYG
15
13
1,001
1.2
6
6.0
2021
NYG
6
3
267
-0.6
2
7.5
2022
NE
17
15
668
0.2
2
3.0
2023
NE
15
15
1,044
1.3
7
6.7
2024
NE
6
6
387
-0.3
2
5.2
2025
PIT
14
9
306
-0.5
2
6.5
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
