2004 NFL Draft · Good GM

DESCRIPTIVE → ADJUSTED

Follow the class result into model evidence

The totals on this page describe what happened. Player profiles show pick-level support adjusted for slot, position, era, and observed career window; GM profiles connect those picks to the maturity-adjusted headline estimate.

Open adjusted player evidence Open adjusted GM evidence for Ernie Accorsi

Class value over time

Descriptive cumulative "value units" across all 255 picks, summed year-by-year. Value = games started + 5×Pro Bowl + 10×AP1 + 3×AP2 per player-season, then summed across the class. Earlier draft classes sit behind the highlighted 2004 line on the same seasons-since-draft axis, so the slope shows whether a class matured fast or needed time.

2004 class highlighted · 24 earlier classes behind it

Top 10 picks by career AV

Ordered by PFR weighted Approximate Value across the player's full career (any team).

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	Career AV	Team GP	Career PB	Career AP1	HOF
1.4	Philip Rivers	QB	NYG	Ernie Accorsi	150	0	8
1.11	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	131	249	6
1.1	Eli Manning	QB	LAC	A.J. Smith	121	0	4
4.126	Jared Allen	DE	KC	Carl Peterson	101	61	5	4	★
1.3	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	Rod Graves	93	263	11	1
1.21	Vince Wilfork	NT	NE	Bill Belichick	90	158	5	1
2.33	Karlos Dansby	LB	ARI	Rod Graves	81	122
1.24	Steven Jackson	RB	LAR	Charley Armey	75	131	3
2.34	Chris Snee	G	NYG	Ernie Accorsi	75	141	4	1
2.39	Daryl Smith	LB	JAX	James Harris	72	126

Lower-AV early-round picks (rounds 1–2, AV < 15)

A descriptive filter for first- and second-round picks with full-career weighted AV below 15. It does not account for the expectation at each draft slot and is not a model verdict on the pick.

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	AV	YoT
2.52	Jacob Rogers	T	DAL	Jerry Jones	0	1
1.31	Rashaun Woods	WR	SF	Terry Donahue	1	1
2.63	Marquise Hill	DE	NE	Bill Belichick	1	3
2.38	Ricardo Colclough	DB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	2	6
2.61	Kris Wilson	TE	KC	Carl Peterson	3	8
2.54	Darius Watts	WR	DEN	Mike Shanahan	4	2
2.36	Junior Siavii	DT	KC	Carl Peterson	6	7
2.60	Courtney Watson	LB	NO	Mickey Loomis	7	2
2.40	Ben Troupe	TE	TEN	Floyd Reese	8	5
2.48	Dontarrious Thomas	LB	MIN	Mike Tice / Brzezinski	8	5

All picks (255) · sortable below

Each player name links to their year-by-year career page. Each team links to its GM history page.

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	Career AV	Team GP	Team GS	Team PB	Team AP1	HOF
1.1	Eli Manning	QB	LAC	A.J. Smith	121	0	0
1.2	Robert Gallery	T	LV	Al Davis era	38	92	91
1.3	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	Rod Graves	93	263	261	9	1
1.4	Philip Rivers	QB	NYG	Ernie Accorsi	150	0	0
1.5	Sean Taylor	DB	WAS	Vinny Cerrato	32	55	53	2
1.6	Kellen Winslow	TE	CLE	Butch Davis	37	44	40			★
1.7	Roy Williams	WR	DET	Matt Millen	42	60	56	1
1.8	DeAngelo Hall	DB	ATL	Rich McKay	61	57	55	2
1.9	Reggie Williams	WR	JAX	James Harris	23	79	53
1.10	Dunta Robinson	DB	HOU	Charley Casserly	41	84	79
1.11	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	131	249	247	4
1.12	Jonathan Vilma	LB	NYJ	Terry Bradway	56	55	53	1
1.13	Lee Evans	WR	BUF	Tom Donahoe	47	109	102
1.14	Tommie Harris	DT	CHI	Jerry Angelo	56	104	90	3
1.15	Michael Clayton	WR	TB	Bruce Allen	22	84	56
1.16	Shawn Andrews	G	PHI	Andy Reid	35	50	50	2	1
1.17	D.J. Williams	LB	DEN	Mike Shanahan	48	127	115
1.18	Will Smith	DE	NO	Mickey Loomis	52	139	120	1
1.19	Vernon Carey	T	MIA	Rick Spielman	44	121	107
1.20	Kenechi Udeze	DE	MIN	Mike Tice / Brzezinski	20	51	47
1.21	Vince Wilfork	NT	NE	Bill Belichick	90	158	148	5	1
1.22	J.P. Losman	QB	BUF	Tom Donahoe	19	42	33
1.23	Marcus Tubbs	DT	SEA	Mike Holmgren	9	29	16
1.24	Steven Jackson	RB	LAR	Charley Armey	75	131	119	3
1.25	Ahmad Carroll	DB	GB	Mike Sherman	14	34	28
1.26	Chris Perry	RB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	9	35	9
1.27	Jason Babin	LB	HOU	Charley Casserly	46	43	22
1.28	Chris Gamble	DB	CAR	Marty Hurney	44	123	117
1.29	Michael Jenkins	WR	ATL	Rich McKay	39	103	64
1.30	Kevin Jones	RB	DET	Matt Millen	27	53	49
1.31	Rashaun Woods	WR	SF	Terry Donahue	1	14	0
1.32	Ben Watson	TE	NE	Bill Belichick	40	81	55
2.33	Karlos Dansby	LB	ARI	Rod Graves	81	122	113
2.34	Chris Snee	G	NYG	Ernie Accorsi	75	141	141	3	1
2.35	Igor Olshansky	DE	LAC	A.J. Smith	39	75	70
2.36	Junior Siavii	DT	KC	Carl Peterson	6	26	0
2.37	Teddy Lehman	LB	DET	Matt Millen	9	41	16
2.38	Ricardo Colclough	DB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	2	36	0
2.39	Daryl Smith	LB	JAX	James Harris	72	126	124
2.40	Ben Troupe	TE	TEN	Floyd Reese	8	55	29
2.41	Tatum Bell	RB	DEN	Mike Shanahan	22	49	17
2.42	Travis LaBoy	DE	TEN	Floyd Reese	21	54	20
2.43	Julius Jones	RB	DAL	Jerry Jones	38	53	51
2.44	Bob Sanders	DB	IND	Bill Polian	33	48	46	2	2
2.45	Jake Grove	C	LV	Al Davis era	20	54	46
2.46	Justin Smiley	G	SF	Terry Donahue	30	56	49
2.47	Tank Johnson	DT	CHI	Jerry Angelo	22	46	15
2.48	Dontarrious Thomas	LB	MIN	Mike Tice / Brzezinski	8	63	10
2.49	Keiwan Ratliff	DB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	9	54	8
2.50	Devery Henderson	WR	NO	Mickey Loomis	36	124	76
2.51	Dwan Edwards	DT	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	32	56	23
2.52	Jacob Rogers	T	DAL	Jerry Jones	0	2	0
2.53	Michael Boulware	DB	SEA	Mike Holmgren	16	48	28
2.54	Darius Watts	WR	DEN	Mike Shanahan	4	22	2
2.55	Greg Jones	RB	JAX	James Harris	9	115	67
2.56	Madieu Williams	DB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	33	49	45
2.57	Antwan Odom	DE	TEN	Floyd Reese	24	52	35
2.58	Shawntae Spencer	DB	SF	Terry Donahue	26	98	72
2.59	Sean Jones	DB	CLE	Butch Davis	31	60	44
2.60	Courtney Watson	LB	NO	Mickey Loomis	7	21	14
2.61	Kris Wilson	TE	KC	Carl Peterson	3	49	23
2.62	Keary Colbert	WR	CAR	Marty Hurney	14	55	42
2.63	Marquise Hill	DE	NE	Bill Belichick	1	13	0
3.64	Darnell Dockett	DT	ARI	Rod Graves	69	158	156	3
3.65	Nate Kaeding	K	LAC	A.J. Smith	21	113	0	2	1
3.66	Nick Hardwick	C	LAC	A.J. Smith	67	136	136	1
3.67	Stuart Schweigert	DB	LV	Al Davis era	15	63	42
3.68	Ben Hartsock	TE	IND	Bill Polian	2	23	3
3.69	Gilbert Gardner	LB	IND	Bill Polian	8	37	15
3.70	Joey Thomas	DB	GB	Mike Sherman	3	20	1
3.71	Randy Starks	DT	TEN	Floyd Reese	61	60	36
3.72	Donnell Washington	DT	GB	Mike Sherman	0	0	0
3.73	Keith Smith	DB	DET	Matt Millen	6	71	5
3.74	Tim Anderson	DT	BUF	Tom Donahoe	7	38	17
3.75	Max Starks	T	PIT	Kevin Colbert	44	123	96
3.76	Derrick Strait	DB	NYJ	Terry Bradway	4	26	5
3.77	Derrick Hamilton	WR	SF	Terry Donahue	0	2	0
3.78	Bernard Berrian	WR	CHI	Jerry Angelo	32	58	32
3.79	Marquis Cooper	LB	TB	Bruce Allen	2	26	0
3.80	Caleb Miller	LB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	8	39	11
3.81	Chris Cooley	TE	WAS	Vinny Cerrato	34	117	103	2
3.82	Devard Darling	WR	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	4	30	1
3.83	Stephen Peterman	G	DAL	Jerry Jones	34	3	0
3.84	Sean Locklear	T	SEA	Mike Holmgren	39	97	78
3.85	Jeremy LeSueur	DB	DEN	Mike Shanahan	0	0	0
3.86	Jorge Cordova	LB	JAX	James Harris	1	15	0
3.87	B.J. Sander	P	GB	Mike Sherman	1	14	0
3.88	Darrion Scott	DE	MIN	Mike Tice / Brzezinski	15	48	28
3.89	Matt Ware	DB	PHI	Andy Reid	6	28	0
3.90	Matt Schaub	QB	ATL	Rich McKay	68	52	3
3.91	Anthony Hargrove	DE	LAR	Charley Armey	16	35	19
3.92	Rich Gardner	DB	TEN	Floyd Reese	2	28	1
3.93	Keyaron Fox	LB	KC	Carl Peterson	13	40	4
3.94	Travelle Wharton	T	CAR	Marty Hurney	45	115	111
3.95	Guss Scott	DB	NE	Bill Belichick	1	6	2
3.96	Landon Johnson	LB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	28	64	53
4.97	Reggie Torbor	LB	NYG	Ernie Accorsi	17	62	18
4.98	Shaun Phillips	DE	LAC	A.J. Smith	54	136	108	1
4.99	Carlos Francis	WR	LV	Al Davis era	0	5	0
4.100	Alex Stepanovich	C	ARI	Rod Graves	14	30	30
4.101	Demorrio Williams	LB	ATL	Rich McKay	33	64	43
4.102	Will Poole	DB	MIA	Rick Spielman	1	15	1
4.103	Bo Schobel	DE	TEN	Floyd Reese	3	13	2
4.104	Isaac Sopoaga	DT	SF	Terry Donahue	38	125	79
4.105	Samie Parker	WR	KC	Carl Peterson	13	47	31
4.106	Luke McCown	QB	CLE	Butch Davis	8	5	4
4.107	Kendyll Pope	LB	IND	Bill Polian	0	2	0
4.108	Jerricho Cotchery	WR	NYJ	Terry Bradway	51	103	65
4.109	Tim Euhus	TE	BUF	Tom Donahoe	1	23	8
4.110	Nathan Vasher	DB	CHI	Jerry Angelo	30	73	46	1
4.111	Will Allen	DB	TB	Bruce Allen	24	84	26
4.112	Leon Joe	LB	CHI	Jerry Angelo	4	24	1
4.113	Dexter Reid	DB	NE	Bill Belichick	4	13	2
4.114	Matthias Askew	DT	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	0	6	0
4.115	Nat Dorsey	T	MIN	Mike Tice / Brzezinski	7	13	7
4.116	Niko Koutouvides	LB	SEA	Mike Holmgren	8	59	2
4.117	Robert Geathers	DE	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	46	152	104
4.118	Anthony Maddox	DT	JAX	James Harris	7	7	0
4.119	Mewelde Moore	RB	MIN	Mike Tice / Brzezinski	29	54	11
4.120	Ernest Wilford	WR	JAX	James Harris	22	80	44
4.121	Bruce Thornton	DB	DAL	Jerry Jones	4	1	0
4.122	Glenn Earl	DB	HOU	Charley Casserly	10	37	31
4.123	Stacy Andrews	T	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	23	62	32
4.124	Michael Waddell	DB	TEN	Floyd Reese	4	32	5
4.125	Jason David	DB	IND	Bill Polian	24	48	43
4.126	Jared Allen	DE	KC	Carl Peterson	101	61	55	1	1	★
4.127	Richard Seigler	LB	SF	Terry Donahue	0	7	0
4.128	Cedric Cobbs	RB	NE	Bill Belichick	0	3	0
4.129	J.R. Reed	DB	PHI	Andy Reid	3	34	4
4.130	Brandon Chillar	LB	LAR	Charley Armey	22	63	41
4.131	Trey Darilek	G	PHI	Andy Reid	1	18	0
4.132	Adrian Jones	T	NYJ	Terry Bradway	12	44	16
5.133	Dave Ball	DE	LAC	A.J. Smith	15	8	0
5.134	Johnnie Morant	WR	LV	Al Davis era	0	15	2
5.135	Antonio Smith	DE	ARI	Rod Graves	56	62	39
5.136	Gibril Wilson	DB	NYG	Ernie Accorsi	32	52	51
5.137	Josh Scobee	K	JAX	James Harris	26	168	0
5.138	Jacob Bell	G	TEN	Floyd Reese	32	55	46
5.139	Rodney Leisle	DT	NO	Mickey Loomis	2	18	1
5.140	Alex Lewis	LB	DET	Matt Millen	7	52	9
5.141	Jake Scott	G	IND	Bill Polian	58	60	57
5.142	Chad Lavalais	DT	ATL	Rich McKay	9	30	20
5.143	Erik Coleman	DB	NYJ	Terry Bradway	33	63	49
5.144	Sean Ryan	TE	DAL	Jerry Jones	1	9	2
5.145	Nathaniel Adibi	DE	PIT	Kevin Colbert	0	0	0
5.146	Jeb Terry	G	TB	Bruce Allen	2	30	1
5.147	Claude Harriott	DE	CHI	Jerry Angelo	0	0	0
5.148	Craig Krenzel	QB	CHI	Jerry Angelo	1	6	5
5.149	Maurice Mann	WR	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	0	0	0
5.150	Chris Thompson	DB	JAX	James Harris	1	0	0
5.151	Mark Wilson	TE	WAS	Vinny Cerrato	0	2	1
5.152	Jeff Shoate	DB	DEN	Mike Shanahan	0	14	0
5.153	Roderick Green	LB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	6	25	0
5.154	Michael Turner	RB	LAC	A.J. Smith	55	59	1
5.155	Rod Davis	LB	MIN	Mike Tice / Brzezinski	3	39	1
5.156	Mike Karney	FB	NO	Mickey Loomis	2	75	46
5.157	D.J. Hackett	WR	SEA	Mike Holmgren	14	33	14
5.158	Jason Shivers	DB	LAR	Charley Armey	0	0	0
5.159	Sean Bubin	T	JAX	James Harris	0	0	0
5.160	Tony Bua	LB	MIA	Rick Spielman	1	7	0
5.161	Amon Gordon	DT	CLE	Butch Davis	4	6	0
5.162	Thomas Tapeh	FB	PHI	Andy Reid	2	39	16
5.163	Drew Carter	WR	CAR	Marty Hurney	8	33	9
5.164	P.K. Sam	WR	NE	Bill Belichick	0	2	0
5.165	Robert Reynolds	LB	TEN	Floyd Reese	2	33	2
6.166	Shawn Johnson	DE	LV	Al Davis era	0	0	0
6.167	Nick Leckey	C	ARI	Rod Graves	14	44	20
6.168	Jamaar Taylor	WR	NYG	Ernie Accorsi	1	13	0
6.169	Ryan Krause	TE	LAC	A.J. Smith	1	5	1
6.170	Vontez Duff	DB	HOU	Charley Casserly	0	0	0
6.171	Triandos Luke	WR	DEN	Mike Shanahan	0	10	0
6.172	Kelly Butler	T	DET	Matt Millen	8	16	16
6.173	Von Hutchins	DB	IND	Bill Polian	5	19	1
6.174	Rex Hadnot	G	MIA	Rick Spielman	35	62	55
6.175	Jammal Lord	DB	HOU	Charley Casserly	0	1	0
6.176	Kirk Chambers	T	CLE	Butch Davis	9	21	0
6.177	Bo Lacy	T	PIT	Kevin Colbert	0	0	0
6.178	Marko Cavka	T	NYJ	Terry Bradway	0	0	0
6.179	Corey Williams	DT	GB	Mike Sherman	33	56	20
6.180	Jim Molinaro	T	WAS	Vinny Cerrato	1	15	0
6.181	Nate Lawrie	TE	TB	Bruce Allen	0	8	0
6.182	Cody Spencer	LB	LV	Al Davis era	4	0	0
6.183	Greg Brooks	DB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	1	16	0
6.184	Deandre Eiland	DB	MIN	Mike Tice / Brzezinski	0	0	0
6.185	Andy Hall	QB	PHI	Andy Reid	0	0	0
6.186	Etric Pruitt	DB	ATL	Rich McKay	0	3	0
6.187	Josh Harris	QB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	0	0	0
6.188	Andy Lee	P	SF	Terry Donahue	34	176	0	3	3
6.189	Craig Terrill	DT	SEA	Mike Holmgren	9	88	5
6.190	Josh Sewell	C	DEN	Mike Shanahan	0	0	0
6.191	Troy Fleming	RB	TEN	Floyd Reese	3	29	2
6.192	Dexter Wynn	DB	PHI	Andy Reid	4	28	0
6.193	Jim Sorgi	QB	IND	Bill Polian	5	16	0
6.194	Matt Kranchick	TE	PIT	Kevin Colbert	0	6	1
6.195	Jeris McIntyre	WR	KC	Carl Peterson	0	0	0
6.196	Sean Tufts	LB	CAR	Marty Hurney	1	15	0
6.197	Drew Caylor	C	PIT	Kevin Colbert	0	0	0
6.198	Keith Lewis	DB	SF	Terry Donahue	8	76	13
6.199	Clarence Moore	WR	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	2	29	8
6.200	Charlie Anderson	LB	HOU	Charley Casserly	9	60	5
6.201	Jeff Smoker	QB	LAR	Charley Armey	0	0	0
7.202	John Navarre	QB	ARI	Rod Graves	0	2	1
7.203	Drew Strojny	T	NYG	Ernie Accorsi	0	0	0
7.204	Ryon Bingham	DT	LAC	A.J. Smith	6	49	2
7.205	Nate Jones	DB	DAL	Jerry Jones	9	51	1
7.206	Mark Jones	WR	TB	Bruce Allen	0	29	0
7.207	Dylan McFarland	T	BUF	Tom Donahoe	0	3	0
7.208	Adimchinobe Echemandu	RB	CLE	Butch Davis	1	4	0
7.209	Shane Olivea	T	LAC	A.J. Smith	31	60	57
7.210	Raheem Orr	LB	HOU	Charley Casserly	0	0	0
7.211	Sloan Thomas	WR	HOU	Charley Casserly	0	0	0
7.212	Eric Taylor	DT	PIT	Kevin Colbert	0	0	0
7.213	Darrell McClover	LB	NYJ	Terry Bradway	4	16	0
7.214	Jonathan Smith	WR	BUF	Tom Donahoe	2	16	1
7.215	Alfonso Marshall	DB	CHI	Jerry Angelo	0	7	0
7.216	Patrick Crayton	WR	DAL	Jerry Jones	33	82	33
7.217	Cody Pickett	QB	SF	Terry Donahue	1	6	2
7.218	Casey Bramlet	QB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	0	0	0
7.219	Quincy Wilson	RB	ATL	Rich McKay	0	0	0
7.220	Jeff Dugan	TE	MIN	Mike Tice / Brzezinski	2	79	22
7.221	Tony Pape	G	MIA	Rick Spielman	0	0	0
7.222	Derrick Pope	LB	MIA	Rick Spielman	10	55	14
7.223	Jacques Reeves	DB	DAL	Jerry Jones	15	60	14
7.224	Donnie Jones	P	SEA	Mike Holmgren	27	6	0
7.225	Matt Mauck	QB	DEN	Mike Shanahan	1	0	0
7.226	Christian Ferrara	DT	SF	Terry Donahue	0	0	0
7.227	Adrien Clarke	G	PHI	Andy Reid	8	14	4
7.228	Casey Cramer	RB	TB	Bruce Allen	0	0	0
7.229	David Kimball	K	IND	Bill Polian	0	0	0
7.230	Jared Clauss	DT	TEN	Floyd Reese	3	29	2
7.231	Kevin Sampson	T	KC	Carl Peterson	5	16	7
7.232	Michael Gaines	TE	CAR	Marty Hurney	7	42	21
7.233	Christian Morton	DB	NE	Bill Belichick	2	0	0
7.234	Trevor Johnson	DE	NYJ	Terry Bradway	4	25	0
7.235	Derrick Ward	RB	NYJ	Terry Bradway	25	0	0
7.236	Rashad Washington	DB	NYJ	Terry Bradway	3	47	0
7.237	Erik Jensen	TE	LAR	Charley Armey	0	0	0
7.238	Larry Turner	C	LAR	Charley Armey	1	21	1
7.239	Eugene Amano	C	TEN	Floyd Reese	30	124	68
7.240	Colby Bockwoldt	LB	NO	Mickey Loomis	12	32	23
7.241	Sean McHugh	FB	TEN	Floyd Reese	2	0	0
7.242	Bruce Perry	RB	PHI	Andy Reid	0	5	1
7.243	Dominic Furio	C	PHI	Andy Reid	0	0	0
7.244	Derek Abney	WR	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	0	0	0
7.245	Courtney Anderson	TE	LV	Al Davis era	6	39	28
7.246	Brian Rimpf	G	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	3	16	7
7.247	Brandon Miree	RB	DEN	Mike Shanahan	0	0	0
7.248	B.J. Symons	QB	HOU	Charley Casserly	0	0	0
7.249	Bobby McCray	DE	JAX	James Harris	24	61	29
7.250	Bradlee Van Pelt	QB	DEN	Mike Shanahan	0	3	0
7.251	Scott Wells	G	GB	Mike Sherman	64	111	100	1
7.252	Lenny Williams	DB	TB	Bruce Allen	0	0	0
7.253	Isaac Hilton	DE	NYG	Ernie Accorsi	0	0	0
7.254	Carlos Joseph	T	LAC	A.J. Smith	0	0	0
7.255	Andre Sommersell	LB	LV	Al Davis era	0	0	0

How to read this

"Value units" on the chart is a deliberately simple proxy: per player-season, games-started + 5×PB + 10×AP1 + 3×AP2. It's not a dollar value or θ; it's a single growth-curve number that lets us watch the class mature.
Pre-2013 picks have no per-game snap data → their games-started is approximated from career_games / years-on-team. Their on-chart contribution is dominated by honors.
Career AV is PFR's weighted Approximate Value (full-career, any team).
"On-team" honors only: PB/AP1/AP2 counts above are restricted to seasons on the drafting team. A player traded after Year 4 only gets credit for honors earned in years 1-4.
Active careers still accreting value: this year's chart endpoint isn't the final answer for any class with active players.