Antonio Smith · Good GM

All NFL teams

Full-career context

These totals follow Antonio Smith across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.

Games played186

Games started133

Weighted career AV56

Pro Bowls1

AP1 All-Pro0

Career seasons13

Accountability by draft event

What each drafting team received

2004 · Round 5 · #135

ARI draft credit

GM Rod Graves

Team games62

Team starts39

On-team AV20

On-team PB / AP10 / 0

Terrible-1.73 contribution63rd of 70 picks for this GM

Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.

Long-career hit

Antonio Smith became a 13-season, 186-game NFL player after going #135. The retained-value model still ranks him 63rd of 70 for Rod Graves because ARI only got 62 of those games.

His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -1.73. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Rod Graves's leaderboard composite θ.

Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.

The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.

Opportunity

Did he earn the field?

Games played

on drafting team · 186 full-career

Games started

on drafting team · 133 full-career

Snap-z

0.0

0 modeled seasons

Quality

Was that time valuable?

On-team AV

modeled; full weighted AV 56

AV / 1k snaps

—

snap-era only

AV-rate z

—

position-year adjusted quality

Recognition

Did the league notice?

Pro Bowls

1 full-career

AP1 All-Pro

0 AP1

all on drafting team · AP2 context 0

All-Decade

context only

Did this pick move Rod Graves's grade?

The first chart removes the time axis: every Rod Graves pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Antonio Smith totals -1.73. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.

Aggregate contribution by player

Incremental contribution by season

Above expectationBelow expectationAntonio SmithGM total -11.7Antonio Smith by season -2.6

How much retained production did Antonio Smith return vs. his slot?

Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DEs drafted within ±5 picks of Antonio Smith since 2010 (16 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.

Antonio SmithSlot-similar peers (16)

Cumulative value over time

Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.

Games started (cumulative) Pro Bowls AP1 All-Pro AP2 All-Pro

Full-career season history (13 scored seasons)

Year	Team	GP	GS	Snaps	Snap-z	AV	AV/snap
2004	ARI	2	0	—	—	0	—
2005	ARI	12	8	—	—	4	—
2006	ARI	16	8	—	—	4	—
2007	ARI	16	13	—	—	7	—
2008	ARI	16	10	—	—	5	—
2009	HOU	16	15	—	—	8	—
2010	HOU	16	16	—	—	6	—
2011	HOU	16	16	—	—	11	—
2012	HOU	16	16	—	—	8	—
2013	HOU	15	15	816	1.0	7	8.6
2014	LV	16	16	852	1.7	7	8.2
2015	DEN	16	3	393	-0.2	2	5.1
2016	HOU	13	0	252	-0.5	1	4.0

How to read this

The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.