Michael Turner · Good GM

All NFL teams

Full-career context

These totals follow Michael Turner across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.

Games played134

Games started74

Weighted career AV55

Pro Bowls2

AP1 All-Pro1

Career seasons9

Accountability by draft event

What each drafting team received

2004 · Round 5 · #154

LAC draft credit

GM A.J. Smith

Team games59

Team starts1

On-team AV13

On-team PB / AP10 / 0

Bad-0.60 contribution60th of 74 picks for this GM

Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.

Long-career hit

Michael Turner became a 9-season, 134-game NFL player after going #154. The retained-value model still ranks him 60th of 74 for A.J. Smith because LAC only got 59 of those games.

His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -0.60. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from A.J. Smith's leaderboard composite θ.

Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.

The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.

Opportunity

Did he earn the field?

Games played

on drafting team · 134 full-career

Games started

on drafting team · 74 full-career

Snap-z

0.0

0 modeled seasons

Quality

Was that time valuable?

On-team AV

modeled; full weighted AV 55

AV / 1k snaps

—

snap-era only

AV-rate z

—

position-year adjusted quality

Recognition

Did the league notice?

Pro Bowls

2 full-career

AP1 All-Pro

0 AP1

1 full-career · AP2 context 0

All-Decade

context only

Did this pick move A.J. Smith's grade?

The first chart removes the time axis: every A.J. Smith pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Michael Turner totals -0.60. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.

Aggregate contribution by player

Incremental contribution by season

Above expectationBelow expectationMichael TurnerGM total +17.7Michael Turner by season -1.0

How much retained production did Michael Turner return vs. his slot?

Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: RBs drafted within ±5 picks of Michael Turner since 2010 (20 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.

Michael TurnerSlot-similar peers (20)

Cumulative value over time

Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.

Games started (cumulative) Pro Bowls AP1 All-Pro AP2 All-Pro

Full-career season history (9 scored seasons)

Year	Team	GP	GS	Snaps	Snap-z	AV	AV/snap
2004	LAC	14	1	—	—	1	—
2005	LAC	16	0	—	—	3	—
2006	LAC	13	0	—	—	6	—
2007	LAC	16	0	—	—	3	—
2008	ATL	16	16	—	—	13	—
2009	ATL	11	11	—	—	7	—
2010	ATL	16	15	—	—	13	—
2011	ATL	16	15	—	—	11	—
2012	ATL	16	16	—	—	6	—

How to read this

The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.