2007 NFL Draft · Good GM

DESCRIPTIVE → ADJUSTED

Follow the class result into model evidence

The totals on this page describe what happened. Player profiles show pick-level support adjusted for slot, position, era, and observed career window; GM profiles connect those picks to the maturity-adjusted headline estimate.

Open adjusted player evidence Open adjusted GM evidence for Rick Spielman

Class value over time

Descriptive cumulative "value units" across all 255 picks, summed year-by-year. Value = games started + 5×Pro Bowl + 10×AP1 + 3×AP2 per player-season, then summed across the class. Earlier draft classes sit behind the highlighted 2007 line on the same seasons-since-draft axis, so the slope shows whether a class matured fast or needed time.

2007 class highlighted · 27 earlier classes behind it

Top 10 picks by career AV

Ordered by PFR weighted Approximate Value across the player's full career (any team).

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	Career AV	Team GP	Career PB	Career AP1	HOF
1.7	Adrian Peterson	RB	MIN	Rick Spielman	101	123	7	4
1.11	Patrick Willis	LB	SF	Scot McCloughan	93	112	7	5	★
1.14	Darrelle Revis	DB	NYJ	Mike Tannenbaum	93	108	7	4	★
3.86	Marshal Yanda	T	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	92	177	8	2
2.37	Eric Weddle	DB	LAC	A.J. Smith	88	137	6	2
1.3	Joe Thomas	T	CLE	Phil Savage	85	167	10	6	★
1.28	Joe Staley	T	SF	Scot McCloughan	81	181	6
1.2	Calvin Johnson	WR	DET	Matt Millen	78	135	6	3	★
2.47	David Harris	LB	NYJ	Mike Tannenbaum	75	154
1.12	Marshawn Lynch	RB	BUF	Marv Levy	74	45	5	1

Lower-AV early-round picks (rounds 1–2, AV < 15)

A descriptive filter for first- and second-round picks with full-career weighted AV below 15. It does not account for the expectation at each draft slot and is not a model verdict on the pick.

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	AV	YoT
2.49	Kenny Irons	RB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	0	1
2.62	Dan Bazuin	DE	CHI	Jerry Angelo	0	1
2.50	Chris Henry	RB	TEN	Mike Reinfeldt	1	4
1.16	Justin Harrell	DT	GB	Ted Thompson	2	4
1.22	Brady Quinn	QB	CLE	Phil Savage	2	6
2.58	Ikaika Alama-Francis	DE	DET	Matt Millen	2	5
1.17	Jarvis Moss	DE	DEN	Mike Shanahan	3	5
2.40	John Beck	QB	MIA	Randy Mueller	4	5
2.45	Dwayne Jarrett	WR	CAR	Marty Hurney	4	4
2.57	Victor Abiamiri	DE	PHI	Tom Heckert	5	3

All picks (255) · sortable below

Each player name links to their year-by-year career page. Each team links to its GM history page.

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	Career AV	Team GP	Team GS	Team PB	Team AP1	HOF
1.1	JaMarcus Russell	QB	LV	Al Davis era	6	31	25
1.2	Calvin Johnson	WR	DET	Matt Millen	78	135	130	3	3	★
1.3	Joe Thomas	T	CLE	Phil Savage	85	167	167	7	6	★
1.4	Gaines Adams	DE	TB	Bruce Allen	17	37	29
1.5	Levi Brown	T	ARI	Rod Graves	34	81	79
1.6	LaRon Landry	DB	WAS	Vinny Cerrato	39	64	64
1.7	Adrian Peterson	RB	MIN	Rick Spielman	101	123	116	5	4
1.8	Jamaal Anderson	DE	ATL	Rich McKay	20	60	47
1.9	Ted Ginn Jr.	WR	MIA	Randy Mueller	52	48	35
1.10	Amobi Okoye	DT	HOU	Rick Smith	24	62	58
1.11	Patrick Willis	LB	SF	Scot McCloughan	93	112	112	6	5	★
1.12	Marshawn Lynch	RB	BUF	Marv Levy	74	45	37	1
1.13	Adam Carriker	DE	LAR	Jay Zygmunt	22	31	25
1.14	Darrelle Revis	DB	NYJ	Mike Tannenbaum	93	108	108	4	3	★
1.15	Lawrence Timmons	LB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	72	158	126
1.16	Justin Harrell	DT	GB	Ted Thompson	2	14	2
1.17	Jarvis Moss	DE	DEN	Mike Shanahan	3	34	1
1.18	Leon Hall	DB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	51	121	105
1.19	Michael Griffin	DB	TEN	Mike Reinfeldt	55	141	133	2
1.20	Aaron Ross	DB	NYG	Jerry Reese	20	69	43
1.21	Reggie Nelson	DB	JAX	James Harris	63	45	42
1.22	Brady Quinn	QB	CLE	Phil Savage	2	14	12
1.23	Dwayne Bowe	WR	KC	Carl Peterson	50	118	112	1
1.24	Brandon Meriweather	DB	NE	Bill Belichick	33	64	40	2
1.25	Jon Beason	LB	CAR	Marty Hurney	55	72	71	3	1
1.26	Anthony Spencer	DE	DAL	Jerry Jones	34	104	67	1
1.27	Robert Meachem	WR	NO	Mickey Loomis	26	88	32
1.28	Joe Staley	T	SF	Scot McCloughan	81	181	181	3
1.29	Ben Grubbs	G	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	56	74	70	1
1.30	Craig Davis	WR	LAC	A.J. Smith	7	25	2
1.31	Greg Olsen	TE	CHI	Jerry Angelo	60	62	39
1.32	Anthony Gonzalez	WR	IND	Bill Polian	16	40	12
2.33	Alan Branch	DT	ARI	Rod Graves	42	47	3
2.34	Paul Posluszny	LB	BUF	Marv Levy	58	45	45
2.35	Arron Sears	G	TB	Bruce Allen	14	31	31
2.36	Kevin Kolb	QB	PHI	Tom Heckert	12	19	7
2.37	Eric Weddle	DB	LAC	A.J. Smith	88	137	122	1	2
2.38	Zach Miller	TE	LV	Al Davis era	28	62	61	1
2.39	Justin Blalock	G	ATL	Rich McKay	55	125	125
2.40	John Beck	QB	MIA	Randy Mueller	4	5	4
2.41	Chris Houston	DB	ATL	Rich McKay	32	44	37
2.42	Tony Ugoh	T	IND	Bill Polian	17	37	27
2.43	Drew Stanton	QB	DET	Matt Millen	10	12	4
2.44	Sidney Rice	WR	MIN	Rick Spielman	33	48	26	1
2.45	Dwayne Jarrett	WR	CAR	Marty Hurney	4	32	3
2.46	LaMarr Woodley	DE	PIT	Kevin Colbert	54	94	81	1
2.47	David Harris	LB	NYJ	Mike Tannenbaum	75	154	147
2.48	Justin Durant	LB	JAX	James Harris	36	50	42
2.49	Kenny Irons	RB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	0	0	0
2.50	Chris Henry	RB	TEN	Mike Reinfeldt	1	10	0
2.51	Steve Smith	WR	NYG	Jerry Reese	23	46	26	1
2.52	Brian Leonard	RB	LAR	Jay Zygmunt	11	18	7
2.53	Eric Wright	DB	CLE	Phil Savage	32	59	55
2.54	Turk McBride	DT	KC	Carl Peterson	13	25	10
2.55	Josh Wilson	DB	SEA	Tim Ruskell	32	40	24
2.56	Tim Crowder	DE	DEN	Mike Shanahan	11	19	1
2.57	Victor Abiamiri	DE	PHI	Tom Heckert	5	29	6
2.58	Ikaika Alama-Francis	DE	DET	Matt Millen	2	19	2
2.59	Ryan Kalil	C	CAR	Marty Hurney	72	148	145	3	2
2.60	Samson Satele	C	MIA	Randy Mueller	48	48	48
2.61	Gerald Alexander	DB	DET	Matt Millen	11	21	17
2.62	Dan Bazuin	DE	CHI	Jerry Angelo	0	0	0
2.63	Brandon Jackson	RB	GB	Ted Thompson	16	52	16
2.64	Sabby Piscitelli	LB	TB	Bruce Allen	15	45	20
3.65	Quentin Moses	DE	LV	Al Davis era	5	0	0
3.66	Usama Young	DB	NO	Mickey Loomis	17	52	6
3.67	James Marten	T	DAL	Jerry Jones	0	0	0
3.68	Quincy Black	LB	TB	Bruce Allen	18	81	40
3.69	Buster Davis	LB	ARI	Rod Graves	2	0	0
3.70	Ryan Harris	T	DEN	Mike Shanahan	33	62	50
3.71	Lorenzo Booker	RB	MIA	Randy Mueller	4	7	1
3.72	Marcus McCauley	DB	MIN	Rick Spielman	4	26	10
3.73	Jacoby Jones	WR	HOU	Rick Smith	30	75	21
3.74	Yamon Figurs	WR	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	2	26	0
3.75	Laurent Robinson	WR	ATL	Rich McKay	16	21	6
3.76	Jason Hill	WR	SF	Scot McCloughan	9	34	2
3.77	Matt Spaeth	TE	PIT	Kevin Colbert	2	92	56
3.78	James Jones	WR	GB	Ted Thompson	46	120	62
3.79	Mike Sims-Walker	WR	JAX	James Harris	16	40	29
3.80	Paul Williams	WR	TEN	Mike Reinfeldt	0	5	0
3.81	Jay Alford	DT	NYG	Jerry Reese	4	32	3
3.82	Tank Tyler	DT	KC	Carl Peterson	11	37	19
3.83	Charles Johnson	DE	CAR	Marty Hurney	47	143	114
3.84	Jonathan Wade	DB	LAR	Jay Zygmunt	7	47	6
3.85	Brandon Mebane	DT	SEA	Tim Ruskell	63	131	125
3.86	Marshal Yanda	T	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	92	177	166	5	2
3.87	Stewart Bradley	LB	PHI	Tom Heckert	19	44	29
3.88	Andy Alleman	G	NO	Mickey Loomis	5	0	0
3.89	Aaron Rouse	DB	GB	Ted Thompson	8	27	10
3.90	Tony Hunt	RB	PHI	Tom Heckert	0	14	2
3.91	Mario Henderson	DT	LV	Al Davis era	11	44	28
3.92	Trent Edwards	QB	BUF	Marv Levy	16	34	32
3.93	Garrett Wolfe	RB	CHI	Jerry Angelo	2	50	0
3.94	Michael Okwo	LB	CHI	Jerry Angelo	0	0	0
3.95	Dante Hughes	DB	IND	Bill Polian	4	24	0
3.96	Anthony Waters	LB	LAC	A.J. Smith	2	7	0
3.97	Ray McDonald	DE	SF	Scot McCloughan	35	115	68
3.98	Quinn Pitcock	DT	IND	Bill Polian	1	9	1
3.99	Johnnie Lee Higgins	WR	LV	Al Davis era	9	60	11
4.100	Michael Bush	RB	LV	Al Davis era	25	61	19
4.101	Adam Podlesh	P	JAX	James Harris	8	59	0
4.102	Brian Robison	DE	MIN	Rick Spielman	46	173	103
4.103	Isaiah Stanback	QB	DAL	Jerry Jones	0	10	0
4.104	Jay Moore	DE	SF	Scot McCloughan	0	0	0
4.105	A.J. Davis	DB	DET	Matt Millen	0	0	0
4.106	Tanard Jackson	DB	TB	Bruce Allen	24	56	56
4.107	Antonio Pittman	RB	NO	Mickey Loomis	3	0	0
4.108	Paul Soliai	DT	MIA	Randy Mueller	41	99	62	1
4.109	Stephen Nicholas	LB	ATL	Rich McKay	27	101	50
4.110	John Bowie	DB	LV	Al Davis era	0	5	0
4.111	Dwayne Wright	RB	BUF	Marv Levy	1	15	0
4.112	Daniel Sepulveda	P	PIT	Kevin Colbert	7	52	0
4.113	Brian Smith	DE	JAX	James Harris	0	0	0
4.114	Marvin White	DB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	8	30	13
4.115	Leroy Harris	C	TEN	Mike Reinfeldt	19	75	42
4.116	Zak DeOssie	LB	NYG	Jerry Reese	21	199	0	2
4.117	Manuel Ramirez	G	DET	Matt Millen	33	34	22
4.118	Ryne Robinson	WR	CAR	Marty Hurney	0	16	0
4.119	Allen Barbre	T	GB	Ted Thompson	23	25	7
4.120	Baraka Atkins	DE	SEA	Tim Ruskell	2	21	0
4.121	Marcus Thomas	DT	DEN	Mike Shanahan	14	76	34
4.122	Doug Free	T	DAL	Jerry Jones	49	124	114
4.123	Fred Bennett	DB	HOU	Rick Smith	7	40	17
4.124	Mansfield Wrotto	G	SEA	Tim Ruskell	6	14	5
4.125	Jermon Bushrod	T	NO	Mickey Loomis	62	77	68	2
4.126	Dashon Goldson	DB	SF	Scot McCloughan	41	81	64	2	1
4.127	Kareem Brown	DT	NE	Bill Belichick	0	0	0
4.128	Chris Davis	WR	TEN	Mike Reinfeldt	0	17	0
4.129	Scott Chandler	TE	LAC	A.J. Smith	18	1	0
4.130	Josh Beekman	C	CHI	Jerry Angelo	10	28	20
4.131	Brannon Condren	DB	IND	Bill Polian	1	8	0
4.132	Ryan McBean	DT	PIT	Kevin Colbert	11	1	0
4.133	Martrez Milner	TE	ATL	Rich McKay	0	8	2
4.134	Antwan Barnes	LB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	7	38	0
4.135	Joe Cohen	DT	SF	Scot McCloughan	0	0	0
4.136	Clint Session	LB	IND	Bill Polian	20	48	35
4.137	Le'Ron McClain	RB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	13	63	54	2	1
5.138	Jay Richardson	DE	LV	Al Davis era	12	48	22
5.139	Dustin Fry	C	LAR	Jay Zygmunt	0	4	0
5.140	Brandon McDonald	DB	CLE	Phil Savage	15	48	27
5.141	Greg Peterson	DE	TB	Bruce Allen	2	12	0
5.142	Steve Breaston	WR	ARI	Rod Graves	26	60	26
5.143	Dallas Sartz	LB	WAS	Vinny Cerrato	0	0	0
5.144	Brandon Harrison	DB	HOU	Rick Smith	2	15	6
5.145	David Jones	DB	NO	Mickey Loomis	6	0	0
5.146	Aundrae Allison	WR	MIN	Rick Spielman	3	26	0
5.147	Tarell Brown	DB	SF	Scot McCloughan	24	100	47
5.148	Kolby Smith	RB	KC	Carl Peterson	4	27	9
5.149	Uche Nwaneri	G	JAX	James Harris	37	104	92
5.150	Josh Gattis	DB	JAX	James Harris	0	0	0
5.151	Jeff Rowe	QB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	0	0	0
5.152	Antonio Johnson	DT	TEN	Mike Reinfeldt	21	16	6
5.153	Kevin Boss	TE	NYG	Jerry Reese	17	58	45
5.154	Clifton Ryan	DT	LAR	Jay Zygmunt	13	49	27
5.155	Dante Rosario	TE	CAR	Marty Hurney	9	62	22
5.156	Cameron Stephenson	G	PIT	Kevin Colbert	0	0	0
5.157	David Clowney	WR	GB	Ted Thompson	3	0	0
5.158	Johnny Baldwin	LB	DET	Matt Millen	0	0	0
5.159	C.J. Gaddis	DB	PHI	Tom Heckert	0	0	0
5.160	Justin Medlock	K	KC	Carl Peterson	1	1	0
5.161	Will Herring	LB	SEA	Tim Ruskell	10	54	7
5.162	Brent Celek	TE	PHI	Tom Heckert	35	175	132
5.163	Brandon Frye	T	HOU	Rick Smith	2	0	0
5.164	Tim Shaw	LB	CAR	Marty Hurney	6	14	0
5.165	Eric Frampton	DB	LV	Al Davis era	5	0	0
5.166	Derek Landri	DT	JAX	James Harris	15	35	0
5.167	Kevin Payne	DB	CHI	Jerry Angelo	10	32	22
5.168	Corey Graham	DB	CHI	Jerry Angelo	33	77	10	1
5.169	Roy Hall	WR	IND	Bill Polian	0	7	0
5.170	William Gay	DB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	41	160	86
5.171	Clint Oldenburg	T	NE	Bill Belichick	0	0	0
5.172	Legedu Naanee	WR	LAC	A.J. Smith	13	54	10
5.173	Michael Coe	DB	IND	Bill Polian	2	6	0
5.174	Troy Smith	QB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	6	14	2
6.175	Oren O'Neal	FB	LV	Al Davis era	0	18	1
6.176	Rufus Alexander	LB	MIN	Rick Spielman	0	1	0
6.177	Jacob Bender	T	NYJ	Mike Tannenbaum	0	2	0
6.178	Nick Folk	K	DAL	Jerry Jones	38	46	0	1
6.179	H.B. Blades	LB	WAS	Vinny Cerrato	9	64	7
6.180	Justin Rogers	LB	NE	Bill Belichick	2	0	0
6.181	Reagan Maui'a	RB	MIA	Randy Mueller	0	16	9
6.182	Adam Hayward	LB	TB	Bruce Allen	11	107	13
6.183	Kasey Studdard	G	HOU	Rick Smith	8	25	14
6.184	John Wendling	DB	BUF	Marv Levy	7	46	0
6.185	Trey Lewis	DT	ATL	Rich McKay	4	18	7
6.186	Thomas Clayton	RB	SF	Scot McCloughan	0	0	0
6.187	Matt Toeaina	DT	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	12	0	0
6.188	Joel Filani	WR	TEN	Mike Reinfeldt	0	0	0
6.189	Adam Koets	T	NYG	Jerry Reese	3	11	4
6.190	Ken Shackleford	T	LAR	Jay Zygmunt	0	0	0
6.191	Korey Hall	LB	GB	Ted Thompson	0	48	26
6.192	Desmond Bishop	LB	GB	Ted Thompson	18	69	26
6.193	Mason Crosby	K	GB	Ted Thompson	33	258	0
6.194	David Irons	DB	ATL	Rich McKay	1	20	0
6.195	Deon Anderson	FB	DAL	Jerry Jones	1	39	18
6.196	Herbert Taylor	T	KC	Carl Peterson	2	18	1
6.197	Courtney Taylor	WR	SEA	Tim Ruskell	1	18	4
6.198	Doug Datish	C	ATL	Rich McKay	0	0	0
6.199	Drew Mormino	C	MIA	Randy Mueller	0	0	0
6.200	Melila Purcell	DE	CLE	Phil Savage	0	0	0
6.201	Rashad Barksdale	DB	PHI	Tom Heckert	0	0	0
6.202	Mike Richardson	DB	NE	Bill Belichick	2	10	0
6.203	Daren Stone	DB	ATL	Rich McKay	2	12	0
6.204	Jacob Ford	DE	TEN	Mike Reinfeldt	7	43	8
6.205	Jordan Palmer	QB	WAS	Vinny Cerrato	0	0	0
6.206	Ryan Smith	DB	TEN	Mike Reinfeldt	0	0	0
6.207	Prescott Burgess	LB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	2	40	0
6.208	Justise Hairston	RB	NE	Bill Belichick	0	0	0
6.209	Corey Hilliard	T	NE	Bill Belichick	9	0	0
6.210	Jordan Kent	WR	SEA	Tim Ruskell	0	9	1
7.211	Oscar Lua	LB	NE	Bill Belichick	0	0	0
7.212	Courtney Brown	DB	DAL	Jerry Jones	2	17	1
7.213	Chase Pittman	DE	CLE	Phil Savage	0	0	0
7.214	Chris Denman	T	TB	Bruce Allen	0	0	0
7.215	Ben Patrick	TE	ARI	Rod Graves	4	42	20
7.216	Tyler Ecker	TE	WAS	Vinny Cerrato	0	0	0
7.217	Tyler Thigpen	QB	MIN	Rick Spielman	10	0	0
7.218	Zach Diles	LB	HOU	Rick Smith	15	51	30
7.219	Kelvin Smith	LB	MIA	Randy Mueller	0	4	0
7.220	Marvin Mitchell	LB	NO	Mickey Loomis	12	55	2
7.221	Trumaine McBride	DB	CHI	Jerry Angelo	14	33	10
7.222	Derek Schouman	TE	BUF	Marv Levy	2	21	15
7.223	Michael Otto	T	TEN	Mike Reinfeldt	7	62	7
7.224	Michael Johnson	DB	NYG	Jerry Reese	14	49	35
7.225	Brandon Fields	P	MIA	Randy Mueller	21	128	0
7.226	C.J. Wilson	DB	CAR	Marty Hurney	1	23	0
7.227	Dallas Baker	WR	PIT	Kevin Colbert	0	8	0
7.228	DeShawn Wynn	RB	GB	Ted Thompson	3	16	4
7.229	John Broussard	WR	JAX	James Harris	2	8	0
7.230	Dan Santucci	G	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	0	2	0
7.231	Michael Allan	TE	KC	Carl Peterson	0	0	0
7.232	Steve Vallos	G	SEA	Tim Ruskell	7	32	8
7.233	Chandler Williams	WR	MIN	Rick Spielman	0	0	0
7.234	Syndric Steptoe	WR	CLE	Phil Savage	1	16	5
7.235	Chansi Stuckey	WR	NYJ	Mike Tannenbaum	10	19	5
7.236	Nate Ilaoa	RB	PHI	Tom Heckert	0	0	0
7.237	Alan Ball	DB	DAL	Jerry Jones	19	60	21
7.238	Abraham Wright	DE	MIA	Randy Mueller	0	0	0
7.239	C.J. Ah You	DE	BUF	Marv Levy	4	0	0
7.240	Brandon Siler	LB	LAC	A.J. Smith	12	58	12
7.241	Aaron Brant	G	CHI	Jerry Angelo	0	0	0
7.242	Keyunta Dawson	DE	IND	Bill Polian	14	58	20
7.243	Clark Harris	TE	GB	Ted Thompson	11	0	0
7.244	Jason Snelling	RB	ATL	Rich McKay	21	96	6
7.245	Marcus Hamilton	DB	TB	Bruce Allen	1	2	0
7.246	Kenneth Darby	RB	TB	Bruce Allen	4	1	0
7.247	Mike Elgin	G	NE	Bill Belichick	0	0	0
7.248	Keith Jackson	DT	LAR	Jay Zygmunt	0	0	0
7.249	Derek Stanley	WR	LAR	Jay Zygmunt	1	15	0
7.250	Ahmad Bradshaw	RB	NYG	Jerry Reese	42	84	33
7.251	Chad Nkang	LB	JAX	James Harris	3	23	0
7.252	Andrew Carnahan	T	JAX	James Harris	0	0	0
7.253	Nedu Ndukwe	DB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	15	53	31
7.254	Jonathan Holland	WR	LV	Al Davis era	1	17	0
7.255	Ramzee Robinson	DB	DET	Matt Millen	1	19	0

How to read this

"Value units" on the chart is a deliberately simple proxy: per player-season, games-started + 5×PB + 10×AP1 + 3×AP2. It's not a dollar value or θ; it's a single growth-curve number that lets us watch the class mature.
Pre-2013 picks have no per-game snap data → their games-started is approximated from career_games / years-on-team. Their on-chart contribution is dominated by honors.
Career AV is PFR's weighted Approximate Value (full-career, any team).
"On-team" honors only: PB/AP1/AP2 counts above are restricted to seasons on the drafting team. A player traded after Year 4 only gets credit for honors earned in years 1-4.
Active careers still accreting value: this year's chart endpoint isn't the final answer for any class with active players.