Calvin Johnson · Good GM

All NFL teams

Full-career context

These totals follow Calvin Johnson across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.

Games played135

Games started130

Weighted career AV78

Pro Bowls6

AP1 All-Pro3

Career seasons9

Accountability by draft event

What each drafting team received

2007 · Round 1 · #2

DET draft credit

GM Matt Millen

Team games135

Team starts130

On-team AV94

On-team PB / AP13 / 3

Excellent+6.14 contribution1st of 62 picks for this GM

Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.

An Excellent pick

Calvin Johnson was Matt Millen's 1st-best of 62 picks across his career, the best pick of the entire tenure.

His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +6.14. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Matt Millen's leaderboard composite θ.

The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.

Opportunity

Did he earn the field?

Games played

135

on drafting team

Games started

130

on drafting team

Snap-z

4.0

3 modeled seasons

Quality

Was that time valuable?

On-team AV

modeled; full weighted AV 78

AV / 1k snaps

11.9

2,600 snaps in rate base

AV-rate z

+0.8

position-year adjusted quality

Recognition

Did the league notice?

Pro Bowls

6 full-career

AP1 All-Pro

3 AP1

all on drafting team · AP2 context 1

All-Decade

context only

Did this pick move Matt Millen's grade?

The first chart removes the time axis: every Matt Millen pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Calvin Johnson totals +6.14. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.

Aggregate contribution by player

Incremental contribution by season

Above expectationBelow expectationCalvin JohnsonGM total -8.2Calvin Johnson by season +13.3

How much retained production did Calvin Johnson return vs. his slot?

Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: WRs drafted within ±5 picks of Calvin Johnson since 2010 (14 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.

Calvin JohnsonSlot-similar peers (14)

Cumulative value over time

Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.

Games started (cumulative) Pro Bowls AP1 All-Pro AP2 All-Pro

Full-career season history (9 scored seasons)

Year	Team	GP	GS	Snaps	Snap-z	AV	AV/snap	PB	AP1	AP2
2007	DET	15	10	—	—	6	—
2008	DET	16	16	—	—	11	—
2009	DET	14	14	—	—	7	—
2010	DET	15	15	—	—	10	—	✓		·
2011	DET	16	16	—	—	15	—	✓	★
2012	DET	16	16	—	—	14	—	✓	★
2013	DET	14	14	897	1.4	12	13.4		★
2014	DET	13	12	697	0.8	9	12.9
2015	DET	16	16	1,006	1.8	10	9.9

How to read this

The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.