Excellent+2.47 contribution3rd of 42 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
An Excellent pick
Joe Staley was Scot McCloughan's 3rd-best of 42 picks across his career.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +2.47. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Scot McCloughan's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
181
on drafting team
Games started
181
on drafting team
Snap-z
6.0
7 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
104
modeled; full weighted AV 81
AV / 1k snaps
8.6
6,615 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.5
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
3
6 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 2
All-Decade
1
context only
Did this pick move Scot McCloughan's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Scot McCloughan pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Joe Staley totals +2.47. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationJoe StaleyGM total -3.4Joe Staley by season +6.4
How much retained production did Joe Staley return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: Ts drafted within ±5 picks of Joe Staley since 2010 (12 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Joe StaleySlot-similar peers (12)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (13 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2007
SF
16
16
—
—
5
—
2008
SF
16
16
—
—
8
—
2009
SF
9
9
—
—
4
—
2010
SF
9
9
—
—
4
—
2011
SF
16
16
—
—
13
—
✓
·
2012
SF
16
16
—
—
13
—
✓
2013
SF
16
15
1,005
0.9
13
12.9
·
2014
SF
16
16
1,121
1.3
10
8.9
2015
SF
16
16
1,027
1.0
8
7.8
2016
SF
13
13
890
0.7
5
5.6
2017
SF
15
14
1,049
1.3
10
9.5
✓
2018
SF
16
15
1,067
1.2
7
6.6
2019
SF
7
7
456
-0.3
4
8.8
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
