Good+0.24 contribution18th of 42 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
A Good pick
Adrian Peterson was Rick Spielman's 18th-best of 42 picks across his career.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +0.24. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Rick Spielman's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
123
on drafting team · 184 full-career
Games started
116
on drafting team · 167 full-career
Snap-z
1.6
4 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
106
modeled; full weighted AV 101
AV / 1k snaps
18.4
1,465 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.7
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
5
7 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
4 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 3
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Rick Spielman's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Rick Spielman pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Adrian Peterson totals +0.24. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationAdrian PetersonGM total +14.0Adrian Peterson by season -0.2
How much retained production did Adrian Peterson return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: RBs drafted within ±5 picks of Adrian Peterson since 2010 (11 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Adrian PetersonSlot-similar peers (11)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (15 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2007
MIN
14
9
—
—
12
—
✓
·
2008
MIN
16
15
—
—
13
—
✓
★
2009
MIN
16
15
—
—
16
—
✓
★
2010
MIN
15
15
—
—
11
—
✓
·
2011
MIN
12
12
—
—
8
—
2012
MIN
16
16
—
—
19
—
✓
★
2013
MIN
14
13
674
1.7
11
16.3
·
2014
MIN
1
1
43
-1.2
1
23.3
2015
MIN
16
14
664
2.0
14
21.1
★
2016
MIN
3
2
84
-0.9
1
11.9
2017
ARI, NO
10
5
301
-1.3
4
13.3
2018
WAS
16
9
479
0.9
7
14.6
2019
WAS
15
5
402
0.5
6
14.9
2020
DET
16
1
314
0.3
5
15.9
2021
SEA, TEN
4
0
72
-2.0
1
13.9
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
