2021 NFL Draft
Descriptive results for how the 2021 class added value over time. Class totals as of 2025: 3,010 career AV, 47 Pro Bowls, 17 AP1 All-Pros.
DESCRIPTIVE → ADJUSTED
Follow the class result into model evidence
The totals on this page describe what happened. Player profiles show pick-level support adjusted for slot, position, era, and observed career window; GM profiles connect those picks to the maturity-adjusted headline estimate.
Class value over time
Descriptive cumulative "value units" across all 259 picks, summed year-by-year. Value = games started + 5×Pro Bowl + 10×AP1 + 3×AP2 per player-season, then summed across the class. Earlier draft classes sit behind the highlighted 2021 line on the same seasons-since-draft axis, so the slope shows whether a class matured fast or needed time.
Top 10 picks by career AV
Ordered by PFR weighted Approximate Value across the player's full career (any team).
| Pick | Player | Pos | Team | GM | Career AV | Team GP | Career PB | Career AP1 | HOF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.12 | Micah Parsons | LB | DAL | Jerry Jones | 67 | 63 | 5 | 3 | |
| 1.7 | Penei Sewell | OL | DET | Brad Holmes | 64 | 83 | 4 | 3 | |
| 1.5 | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN | Mike Brown / Duke Tobin | 58 | 78 | 5 | 2 | |
| 4.112 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | Brad Holmes | 57 | 83 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1.1 | Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | Trent Baalke | 52 | 77 | 1 | ||
| 1.9 | Patrick Surtain II | DB | DEN | George Paton | 51 | 80 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2.63 | Creed Humphrey | OL | KC | Brett Veach | 51 | 85 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1.10 | DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | Howie Roseman | 47 | 80 | |||
| 1.11 | Justin Fields | QB | CHI | Ryan Pace | 44 | 40 | |||
| 1.6 | Jaylen Waddle | WR | MIA | Chris Grier | 41 | 78 |
Lower-AV early-round picks (rounds 1–2, AV < 15)
A descriptive filter for first- and second-round picks with full-career weighted AV below 15. It does not account for the expectation at each draft slot and is not a model verdict on the pick.
| Pick | Player | Pos | Team | GM | AV | YoT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.64 | Kyle Trask | QB | TB | Jason Licht | 0 | 4 |
| 1.22 | Caleb Farley | DB | TEN | Jon Robinson | 2 | 4 |
| 2.44 | Kelvin Joseph | DB | DAL | Jerry Jones | 2 | 4 |
| 1.28 | Payton Turner | DE | NO | Mickey Loomis | 3 | 4 |
| 2.56 | D'Wayne Eskridge | WR | SEA | John Schneider | 3 | 5 |
| 2.61 | Boogie Basham | DL | BUF | Brandon Beane | 4 | 5 |
| 2.46 | Jackson Carman | T | CIN | Mike Brown / Duke Tobin | 5 | 4 |
| 1.3 | Trey Lance | QB | SF | John Lynch | 6 | 5 |
| 2.59 | Terrace Marshall Jr. | WR | CAR | Scott Fitterer | 6 | 4 |
| 1.20 | Kadarius Toney | WR | NYG | Dave Gettleman | 7 | 4 |
All picks (259) · sortable below
Each player name links to their year-by-year career page. Each team links to its GM history page.
How to read this
- "Value units" on the chart is a deliberately simple proxy: per player-season, games-started + 5×PB + 10×AP1 + 3×AP2. It's not a dollar value or θ; it's a single growth-curve number that lets us watch the class mature.
- Pre-2013 picks have no per-game snap data → their games-started is approximated from career_games / years-on-team. Their on-chart contribution is dominated by honors.
- Career AV is PFR's weighted Approximate Value (full-career, any team).
- "On-team" honors only: PB/AP1/AP2 counts above are restricted to seasons on the drafting team. A player traded after Year 4 only gets credit for honors earned in years 1-4.
- Active careers still accreting value: this year's chart endpoint isn't the final answer for any class with active players.