Excellent+3.06 contribution2nd of 41 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
An Excellent pick
Nico Collins was Nick Caserio's 2nd-best of 41 picks across his career.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +3.06. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Nick Caserio's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
66
on drafting team
Games started
52
on drafting team
Snap-z
3.4
5 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
35
modeled; full weighted AV 33
AV / 1k snaps
12.0
2,928 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.6
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
2
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Nick Caserio's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Nick Caserio pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Nico Collins totals +3.06. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationNico CollinsGM total +17.9Nico Collins by season +6.8
How much retained production did Nico Collins return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: WRs drafted within ±5 picks of Nico Collins since 2010 (25 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Nico CollinsSlot-similar peers (25)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (5 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2021
HOU
14
13
538
0.5
3
5.6
2022
HOU
10
9
441
0.2
4
9.1
2023
HOU
15
13
669
0.8
11
16.4
2024
HOU
12
9
502
0.4
8
15.9
✓
2025
HOU
15
15
778
1.5
9
11.6
✓
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
