Excellent+7.06 contribution1st of 38 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
An Excellent pick
Patrick Surtain II was George Paton's 1st-best of 38 picks across his career, the best pick of the entire tenure.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +7.06. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from George Paton's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
80
on drafting team
Games started
79
on drafting team
Snap-z
8.5
5 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
55
modeled; full weighted AV 51
AV / 1k snaps
10.8
5,099 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+1.4
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
4
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
2 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 1
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move George Paton's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every George Paton pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Patrick Surtain II totals +7.06. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationPatrick Surtain IIGM total +17.9Patrick Surtain II by season +15.0
How much retained production did Patrick Surtain II return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DBs drafted within ±5 picks of Patrick Surtain II since 2010 (13 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Patrick Surtain IISlot-similar peers (13)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (5 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2021
DEN
16
15
903
1.4
7
7.8
2022
DEN
17
16
1,117
1.9
14
12.5
✓
★
2023
DEN
17
17
1,199
2.2
8
6.7
✓
2024
DEN
16
15
987
1.6
15
15.2
✓
★
2025
DEN
14
13
893
1.5
11
12.3
✓
·
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
