2023 NFL Draft
Descriptive results for how the 2023 class added value over time. Class totals as of 2025: 1,980 career AV, 30 Pro Bowls, 6 AP1 All-Pros.
DESCRIPTIVE → ADJUSTED
Follow the class result into model evidence
The totals on this page describe what happened. Player profiles show pick-level support adjusted for slot, position, era, and observed career window; GM profiles connect those picks to the maturity-adjusted headline estimate.
Class value over time
Descriptive cumulative "value units" across all 259 picks, summed year-by-year. Value = games started + 5×Pro Bowl + 10×AP1 + 3×AP2 per player-season, then summed across the class. Earlier draft classes sit behind the highlighted 2023 line on the same seasons-since-draft axis, so the slope shows whether a class matured fast or needed time.
Top 10 picks by career AV
Ordered by PFR weighted Approximate Value across the player's full career (any team).
| Pick | Player | Pos | Team | GM | Career AV | Team GP | Career PB | Career AP1 | HOF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.12 | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | Brad Holmes | 40 | 49 | 3 | ||
| 5.177 | Puka Nacua | WR | LAR | Les Snead | 39 | 44 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1.3 | Will Anderson | LB | HOU | Nick Caserio | 37 | 46 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1.8 | Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | Terry Fontenot | 36 | 51 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1.2 | C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | Nick Caserio | 33 | 46 | 1 | ||
| 1.22 | Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | Eric DeCosta | 33 | 50 | 2 | ||
| 3.84 | De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | Chris Grier | 31 | 44 | 1 | ||
| 1.20 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | John Schneider | 30 | 51 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1.5 | Devon Witherspoon | DB | SEA | John Schneider | 26 | 43 | 3 | ||
| 1.18 | Jack Campbell | LB | DET | Brad Holmes | 26 | 51 | 1 | 1 |
Lower-AV early-round picks (rounds 1–2, AV < 15)
A descriptive filter for first- and second-round picks with full-career weighted AV below 15. It does not account for the expectation at each draft slot and is not a model verdict on the pick.
| Pick | Player | Pos | Team | GM | AV | YoT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.41 | BJ Ojulari | DE | ARI | Monti Ossenfort | 1 | 3 |
| 2.51 | Cam Smith | DB | MIA | Chris Grier | 1 | 2 |
| 2.40 | Isaiah Foskey | DL | NO | Mickey Loomis | 2 | 3 |
| 1.13 | Lukas Van Ness | DL | GB | Brian Gutekunst | 4 | 3 |
| 1.31 | Felix Anudike-Uzomah | DE | KC | Brett Veach | 4 | 2 |
| 2.39 | Jonathan Mingo | WR | CAR | Scott Fitterer | 4 | 3 |
| 2.44 | Julius Brents | DB | IND | Chris Ballard | 4 | 3 |
| 2.58 | Luke Schoonmaker | TE | DAL | Jerry Jones | 4 | 3 |
| 2.42 | Luke Musgrave | TE | GB | Brian Gutekunst | 6 | 3 |
| 1.28 | Myles Murphy | DE | CIN | Mike Brown / Duke Tobin | 7 | 3 |
All picks (259) · sortable below
Each player name links to their year-by-year career page. Each team links to its GM history page.
How to read this
- "Value units" on the chart is a deliberately simple proxy: per player-season, games-started + 5×PB + 10×AP1 + 3×AP2. It's not a dollar value or θ; it's a single growth-curve number that lets us watch the class mature.
- Pre-2013 picks have no per-game snap data → their games-started is approximated from career_games / years-on-team. Their on-chart contribution is dominated by honors.
- Career AV is PFR's weighted Approximate Value (full-career, any team).
- "On-team" honors only: PB/AP1/AP2 counts above are restricted to seasons on the drafting team. A player traded after Year 4 only gets credit for honors earned in years 1-4.
- Active careers still accreting value: this year's chart endpoint isn't the final answer for any class with active players.