1983 NFL Draft · Good GM

DESCRIPTIVE → ADJUSTED

Follow the class result into model evidence

The totals on this page describe what happened. Player profiles show pick-level support adjusted for slot, position, era, and observed career window; GM profiles connect those picks to the maturity-adjusted headline estimate.

Open adjusted player evidence Open adjusted GM evidence for Don Shula

Class value over time

Descriptive cumulative "value units" across all 196 picks, summed year-by-year. Value = games started + 5×Pro Bowl + 10×AP1 + 3×AP2 per player-season, then summed across the class. Earlier draft classes sit behind the highlighted 1983 line on the same seasons-since-draft axis, so the slope shows whether a class matured fast or needed time.

1983 class highlighted · 3 earlier classes behind it

Top 10 picks by career AV

Ordered by PFR weighted Approximate Value across the player's full career (any team).

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	Career AV	Team GP	Career PB	Career AP1	HOF
1.27	Dan Marino	QB	MIA	Don Shula	145	242	9	3	★
1.1	John Elway	QB	IND	Ernie Accorsi	140	0	9		★
1.9	Bruce Matthews	G	TEN	Ladd Herzeg	138	296	14	7	★
1.14	Jim Kelly	QB	BUF	Stew Barber	103	160	5	1	★
1.28	Darrell Green	DB	WAS	Bobby Beathard	103	295	7	1	★
2.32	Henry Ellard	WR	LAR	Don Klosterman	97	158	3	2
2.49	Roger Craig	RB	SF	John McVay	95	121	4	1
1.2	Eric Dickerson	RB	LAR	Don Klosterman	92	65	6	5	★
3.61	Albert Lewis	DB	KC	Jim Schaaf	82	150	4	2
1.4	Chris Hinton	T	DEN	Edgar Kaiser/staff	79	0	7	1

Lower-AV early-round picks (rounds 1–2, AV < 15)

A descriptive filter for first- and second-round picks with full-career weighted AV below 15. It does not account for the expectation at each draft slot and is not a model verdict on the pick.

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	AV	YoT
2.47	Darryal Wilson	WR	NE	Patrick Sullivan	0	1
2.56	Richard Williams	RB	WAS	Bobby Beathard	0	2
1.21	Gabe Rivera	NT	PIT	Dick Haley	1	1
2.46	Jody Schulz	LB	PHI	Jim Murray	6	5
2.52	Wayne Capers	WR	PIT	Dick Haley	8	4
2.31	Mark Cooper	G	DEN	Edgar Kaiser/staff	10	7
2.48	Dave Drechsler	G	GB	Bart Starr	10	2
1.12	Tony Hunter	TE	BUF	Stew Barber	11	4
1.7	Todd Blackledge	QB	KC	Jim Schaaf	12	7
2.43	James Britt	DB	ATL	Tom Braatz	13	5

All picks (196) · sortable below

Each player name links to their year-by-year career page. Each team links to its GM history page.

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	Career AV	Team GP	Team GS	Team PB	Team AP1	HOF
1.1	John Elway	QB	IND	Ernie Accorsi	140	0	0			★
1.2	Eric Dickerson	RB	LAR	Don Klosterman	92	65	64	3	3	★
1.3	Curt Warner	RB	SEA	Mike McCormack	60	93	92	3
1.4	Chris Hinton	T	DEN	Edgar Kaiser/staff	79	0	0
1.5	Billy Ray Smith	LB	LAC	Steve Ortmayer	46	126	111
1.6	Jimbo Covert	T	CHI	Jerry Vainisi	57	111	110	1	1
1.7	Todd Blackledge	QB	KC	Jim Schaaf	12	40	24
1.8	Michael Haddix	RB	PHI	Jim Murray	19	88	39
1.9	Bruce Matthews	G	TEN	Ladd Herzeg	138	296	293	10	7	★
1.10	Terry Kinard	DB	NYG	George Young	49	105	99	1
1.11	Tim Lewis	DB	GB	Bart Starr	21	51	42
1.12	Tony Hunter	TE	BUF	Stew Barber	11	24	12
1.13	James Jones	FB	DET	Russ Thomas	42	85	84
1.14	Jim Kelly	QB	BUF	Stew Barber	103	160	160	5	1	★
1.15	Tony Eason	QB	NE	Patrick Sullivan	36	72	49
1.16	Mike Pitts	DT	ATL	Tom Braatz	53	62	33
1.17	Leonard Smith	DB	ARI	Bill Bidwill	42	78	61
1.18	Willie Gault	WR	CHI	Jerry Vainisi	56	76	72
1.19	Joey Browner	DB	MIN	Mike Lynn	74	138	115	6	3
1.20	Gary Anderson	RB	LAC	Steve Ortmayer	42	54	38	1
1.21	Gabe Rivera	NT	PIT	Dick Haley	1	6	0
1.22	Gill Byrd	DB	LAC	Steve Ortmayer	58	149	146	2
1.23	Jim Jeffcoat	DE	DAL	Tex Schramm	57	188	126
1.24	Ken O'Brien	QB	NYJ	Jim Kensil	73	124	106	2
1.25	Dave Rimington	C	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	39	64	63
1.26	Don Mosebar	C	LV	Al Davis	60	173	156	3
1.27	Dan Marino	QB	MIA	Don Shula	145	242	240	8	3	★
1.28	Darrell Green	DB	WAS	Bobby Beathard	103	295	258	5	1	★
2.29	Vernon Maxwell	LB	IND	Ernie Accorsi	26	32	31
2.30	Harvey Salem	T	TEN	Ladd Herzeg	40	47	44
2.31	Mark Cooper	G	DEN	Edgar Kaiser/staff	10	53	12
2.32	Henry Ellard	WR	LAR	Don Klosterman	97	158	141	3	2
2.33	Mike Richardson	DB	CHI	Jerry Vainisi	39	88	80
2.34	Dave Lutz	T	KC	Jim Schaaf	66	139	123
2.35	Wes Hopkins	DB	PHI	Jim Murray	55	137	125	1	1
2.36	Mike Wilcher	LB	LAR	Don Klosterman	42	122	94
2.37	Leonard Marshall	DE	NYG	George Young	70	149	123	2
2.38	Steve Korte	C	NO	Ken Meyer/staff	28	83	63
2.39	Darryl Talley	LB	BUF	Stew Barber	73	188	160	2
2.40	Rich Strenger	T	DET	Russ Thomas	17	49	30
2.41	Ron Brown	WR	CLE	Art Modell/staff	20	0	0
2.42	Keith Bostic	DB	TEN	Ladd Herzeg	34	92	88	1
2.43	James Britt	DB	ATL	Tom Braatz	13	60	28
2.44	Cedric Mack	DB	ARI	Bill Bidwill	33	117	84
2.45	Randy Grimes	C	TB	Phil Krueger	38	118	104
2.46	Jody Schulz	LB	PHI	Jim Murray	6	44	6
2.47	Darryal Wilson	WR	NE	Patrick Sullivan	0	9	0
2.48	Dave Drechsler	G	GB	Bart Starr	10	32	15
2.49	Roger Craig	RB	SF	John McVay	95	121	116	4	1
2.50	Mike Walter	LB	DAL	Tex Schramm	46	15	0
2.51	Johnny Hector	RB	NYJ	Jim Kensil	39	126	34
2.52	Wayne Capers	WR	PIT	Dick Haley	8	27	4
2.53	Ray Horton	DB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	38	89	46
2.54	Bill Pickel	NT	LV	Al Davis	49	121	68		1
2.55	Mike Charles	NT	MIA	Don Shula	27	51	29
2.56	Richard Williams	RB	WAS	Bobby Beathard	0	0	0
3.57	George Achica	DT	IND	Ernie Accorsi	0	4	0
3.58	Tim Joiner	LB	TEN	Ladd Herzeg	3	26	0
3.59	Blanchard Montgomery	LB	SF	John McVay	3	27	3
3.60	Clint Sampson	WR	DEN	Edgar Kaiser/staff	10	59	10
3.61	Albert Lewis	DB	KC	Jim Schaaf	82	150	128	4	2
3.62	Glen Young	WR	PHI	Jim Murray	2	16	0
3.63	Jamie Williams	TE	NYG	George Young	16	0	0
3.64	Dave Duerson	DB	CHI	Jerry Vainisi	58	102	76	4
3.65	John Tice	TE	NO	Ken Meyer/staff	12	134	57
3.66	Cliff Austin	RB	NO	Ken Meyer/staff	5	11	0
3.67	Mike Cofer	LB	DET	Russ Thomas	47	123	104	1
3.68	Reggie Camp	DE	CLE	Art Modell/staff	30	70	69
3.69	Chris Dressel	TE	TEN	Ladd Herzeg	8	64	30
3.70	Karl Nelson	T	NYG	George Young	25	57	51
3.71	Ramsey Dardar	DT	ARI	Bill Bidwill	3	16	6
3.72	Jeremiah Castille	DB	TB	Phil Krueger	23	60	45
3.73	Walker Lee Ashley	LB	MIN	Mike Lynn	13	78	1
3.74	Stephen Starring	WR	NE	Patrick Sullivan	16	72	23
3.75	Andrew Provence	DT	ATL	Tom Braatz	9	69	16
3.76	Charles Benson	DE	MIA	Don Shula	4	24	0
3.77	Bryan Caldwell	DE	DAL	Tex Schramm	0	0	0
3.78	Jo-Jo Townsell	WR	NYJ	Jim Kensil	10	83	13
3.79	Todd Seabaugh	LB	PIT	Dick Haley	1	16	0
3.80	Steve Moore	T	NE	Patrick Sullivan	14	52	31
3.81	Jimmy Turner	DB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	6	56	8
3.82	Tony Caldwell	LB	LV	Al Davis	3	35	0
3.83	Steve Brown	DB	TEN	Ladd Herzeg	30	119	96
3.84	Charles Mann	DE	WAS	Bobby Beathard	79	163	145	4
4.85	Phil Smith	WR	IND	Ernie Accorsi	3	17	0
4.86	Greg Hill	DB	TEN	Ladd Herzeg	8	14	0
4.87	Chuck Nelson	K	LAR	Don Klosterman	7	12	0
4.88	Mike McCloskey	TE	TEN	Ladd Herzeg	2	47	7
4.89	Michael Williams	RB	PHI	Jim Murray	5	31	10
4.90	Tom Holmoe	DB	SF	John McVay	11	82	7
4.91	Tom Thayer	G	CHI	Jerry Vainisi	48	123	120
4.92	Ron Wetzel	TE	KC	Jim Schaaf	0	16	0
4.93	Trey Junkin	TE	BUF	Stew Barber	2	18	0
4.94	August Curley	LB	DET	Russ Thomas	7	38	14
4.95	Danny Walters	DB	LAC	Steve Ortmayer	17	54	46
4.96	Mark Duda	DT	ARI	Bill Bidwill	15	55	34
4.97	Vince Newsome	DB	LAR	Don Klosterman	38	110	69
4.98	Gary Lewis	NT	NO	Ken Meyer/staff	0	6	0
4.99	Kelly Thomas	T	TB	Phil Krueger	8	24	15
4.100	Mark Rush	RB	MIN	Mike Lynn	0	0	0
4.101	Johnny Rembert	LB	NE	Patrick Sullivan	43	126	72	2
4.102	John Harper	LB	ATL	Tom Braatz	1	13	0
4.103	Lionel Washington	DB	ARI	Bill Bidwill	53	52	37
4.104	Mike Miller	WR	GB	Bart Starr	1	0	0
4.105	Wes Howell	TE	NYJ	Jim Kensil	0	0	0
4.106	Bo Metcalf	DB	PIT	Dick Haley	0	0	0
4.107	Pat Dunsmore	TE	CHI	Jerry Vainisi	2	27	1
4.108	Chris Faulkner	TE	DAL	Tex Schramm	0	0	0
4.109	Steve Maidlow	LB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	5	32	2
4.110	Greg Townsend	DE	LV	Al Davis	63	174	90	2
4.111	Doug Reed	DE	LAR	Don Klosterman	34	96	81
4.112	Jimmy Payne	DE	BUF	Stew Barber	0	0	0
5.113	Sid Abramowitz	T	IND	Ernie Accorsi	2	17	4
5.114	Larry Moriarty	RB	TEN	Ladd Herzeg	14	50	33
5.115	Demetrious Johnson	DB	DET	Russ Thomas	20	62	37
5.116	George Harris	LB	DEN	Edgar Kaiser/staff	0	0	0
5.117	Riki Ellison	LB	SF	John McVay	49	80	77
5.118	Smiley Creswell	DE	NE	Patrick Sullivan	0	0	0
5.119	Jim Arnold	P	KC	Jim Schaaf	22	48	0
5.120	Byron Darby	DE	PHI	Jim Murray	12	58	8
5.121	Steve Mott	C	DET	Russ Thomas	30	76	75
5.122	Bill Contz	T	CLE	Art Modell/staff	13	36	9
5.123	Chris Castor	WR	SEA	Mike McCormack	1	23	0
5.124	Malcolm Scott	TE	NYG	George Young	1	16	1
5.125	Bruce Baldwin	DB	DEN	Edgar Kaiser/staff	0	0	0
5.126	Matt Vanden Boom	DB	BUF	Stew Barber	0	0	0
5.127	Mark Stewart	LB	MIN	Mike Lynn	0	4	0
5.128	Darryl Lewis	TE	NE	Patrick Sullivan	0	0	0
5.129	Brett Miller	T	ATL	Tom Braatz	28	68	36
5.130	Steve Bird	WR	ARI	Bill Bidwill	0	22	0
5.131	Tony Chickillo	NT	TB	Phil Krueger	1	0	0
5.132	Bryan Thomas	RB	GB	Bart Starr	0	0	0
5.133	Paul Skansi	WR	PIT	Dick Haley	17	15	0
5.134	Otis Grant	WR	LAR	Don Klosterman	5	30	3
5.135	Chuck McSwain	RB	DAL	Tex Schramm	0	16	0
5.136	John Walker	NT	NYJ	Jim Kensil	1	0	0
5.137	Jeff Christensen	QB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	2	1	0
5.138	Dokie Williams	WR	LV	Al Davis	23	74	38
5.139	Jerome Foster	DE	TEN	Ladd Herzeg	3	25	4
5.140	Gregg Garrity	WR	PIT	Dick Haley	12	21	3
6.141	Trumaine Johnson	WR	LAC	Steve Ortmayer	11	27	6
6.142	Steve Haworth	DB	TEN	Ladd Herzeg	1	0	0
6.143	Victor Heflin	DB	DEN	Edgar Kaiser/staff	1	0	0
6.144	Gary Kowalski	T	LAR	Don Klosterman	14	15	0
6.145	Tim Stracka	TE	CLE	Art Modell/staff	0	19	1
6.146	Ellis Gardner	T	KC	Jim Schaaf	2	8	0
6.147	Victor Oatis	WR	PHI	Jim Murray	1	0	0
6.148	Gene Branton	WR	TB	Phil Krueger	0	4	0
6.149	Dave Puzzuoli	NT	CLE	Art Modell/staff	7	76	2
6.150	Reginald Gipson	RB	SEA	Mike McCormack	0	0	0
6.151	Darrell Patterson	LB	NYG	George Young	0	0	0
6.152	Kiki DeAyala	LB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	3	28	2
6.153	Kevin Belcher	C	NYG	George Young	8	32	16
6.154	Todd Brown	WR	DET	Russ Thomas	0	0	0
6.155	Mike Bass	K	NE	Patrick Sullivan	0	0	0
6.156	Anthony Allen	WR	ATL	Tom Braatz	7	21	4
6.157	George Schmitt	DB	ARI	Bill Bidwill	1	16	0
6.158	Ken Kaplan	T	TB	Phil Krueger	6	32	2
6.159	Mike Jones	WR	MIN	Mike Lynn	22	48	22
6.160	Ron Sams	C	GB	Bart Starr	4	3	0
6.161	Grant Feasel	C	IND	Ernie Accorsi	24	17	0
6.162	Reggie Collier	QB	DAL	Tex Schramm	1	4	1
6.163	Vincent White	RB	NYJ	Jim Kensil	0	0	0
6.164	Eric Williams	DB	PIT	Dick Haley	21	49	43
6.165	Larry Kinnebrew	RB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	24	71	32
6.166	Bob Winckler	T	WAS	Bobby Beathard	0	0	0
6.167	Reggie Roby	P	MIA	Don Shula	28	145	0	2	1
6.168	Babe Laufenberg	QB	WAS	Bobby Beathard	4	0	0
7.169	Alvin Moore	RB	IND	Ernie Accorsi	6	28	2
7.170	Herkie Walls	WR	TEN	Ladd Herzeg	5	36	13
7.171	Jeff Simmons	WR	LAR	Don Klosterman	0	3	0
7.172	Myron Dupree	DB	DEN	Edgar Kaiser/staff	1	16	0
7.173	Ken Thomas	RB	KC	Jim Schaaf	2	14	0
7.174	Anthony Edgar	RB	PHI	Jim Murray	0	0	0
7.175	Gary Moten	LB	SF	John McVay	0	6	0
7.176	Rocky Belk	WR	CLE	Art Modell/staff	1	10	0
7.177	Sam Merriman	LB	SEA	Mike McCormack	6	71	1
7.178	Perry Williams	DB	NYG	George Young	46	146	122
7.179	Daryl Posey	RB	KC	Jim Schaaf	0	0	0
7.180	Gurnest Brown	DT	BUF	Stew Barber	0	0	0
7.181	Mike Black	P	DET	Russ Thomas	7	58	0
7.182	Jon Schultheis	G	PHI	Jim Murray	0	0	0
7.183	Jeff Turk	DB	ATL	Tom Braatz	0	0	0
7.184	Carlos Scott	C	ARI	Bill Bidwill	4	45	1
7.185	Weldon Ledbetter	RB	TB	Phil Krueger	0	0	0
7.186	Carl Lee	DB	MIN	Mike Lynn	69	169	144	3	1
7.187	Craig James	RB	NE	Patrick Sullivan	22	52	33	1
7.188	Jessie Clark	RB	GB	Bart Starr	18	60	35
7.189	Chris Schultz	T	DAL	Tex Schramm	4	21	8
7.190	Darrin Newbold	LB	NYJ	Jim Kensil	0	0	0
7.191	Mark Kirchner	G	PIT	Dick Haley	5	3	0
7.192	Bill Elko	NT	LAC	Steve Ortmayer	7	26	15
7.193	James Griffin	DB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	19	48	11
7.194	Jeff McCall	RB	LV	Al Davis	0	0	0
7.195	Keith Woetzel	LB	MIA	Don Shula	0	0	0
7.196	Kelvin Bryant	RB	WAS	Bobby Beathard	23	46	5

How to read this

"Value units" on the chart is a deliberately simple proxy: per player-season, games-started + 5×PB + 10×AP1 + 3×AP2. It's not a dollar value or θ; it's a single growth-curve number that lets us watch the class mature.
Pre-2013 picks have no per-game snap data → their games-started is approximated from career_games / years-on-team. Their on-chart contribution is dominated by honors.
Career AV is PFR's weighted Approximate Value (full-career, any team).
"On-team" honors only: PB/AP1/AP2 counts above are restricted to seasons on the drafting team. A player traded after Year 4 only gets credit for honors earned in years 1-4.
Active careers still accreting value: this year's chart endpoint isn't the final answer for any class with active players.