Andrew Provence · Good GM

All NFL teams

Full-career context

These totals follow Andrew Provence across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.

Games played69

Games started16

Weighted career AV9

Pro Bowls0

AP1 All-Pro0

Career seasons5

Accountability by draft event

What each drafting team received

1983 · Round 3 · #75

ATL draft credit

GM Tom Braatz

Team games69

Team starts16

On-team AV10

On-team PB / AP10 / 0

Excellent+0.63 contribution12th of 62 picks for this GM

Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.

An Excellent pick

Andrew Provence was Tom Braatz's 12th-best of 62 picks across his career.

His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +0.63. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Tom Braatz's leaderboard composite θ.

The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.

Opportunity

Did he earn the field?

Games played

on drafting team

Games started

on drafting team

Snap-z

0.0

0 modeled seasons

Quality

Was that time valuable?

On-team AV

modeled; full weighted AV 9

AV / 1k snaps

—

snap-era only

AV-rate z

—

position-year adjusted quality

Recognition

Did the league notice?

Pro Bowls

all on drafting team

AP1 All-Pro

0 AP1

all on drafting team · AP2 context 0

All-Decade

context only

Did this pick move Tom Braatz's grade?

The first chart removes the time axis: every Tom Braatz pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Andrew Provence totals +0.63. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.

Aggregate contribution by player

Incremental contribution by season

Above expectationBelow expectationAndrew ProvenceGM total -0.8Andrew Provence by season +1.1

How much retained production did Andrew Provence return vs. his slot?

Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DTs drafted within ±5 picks of Andrew Provence since 2010 (14 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.

Andrew ProvenceSlot-similar peers (14)

Cumulative value over time

Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.

Games started (cumulative) Pro Bowls AP1 All-Pro AP2 All-Pro

Full-career season history (5 scored seasons)

Year	Team	GP	GS	Snaps	Snap-z	AV	AV/snap
1983	ATL	16	12	—	—	5	—
1984	ATL	16	3	—	—	2	—
1985	ATL	16	0	—	—	1	—
1986	ATL	16	0	—	—	1	—
1987	ATL	5	1	—	—	1	—

How to read this

The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.