Excellent+1.04 contribution3rd of 39 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
An Excellent pick
Avery Williamson was Ruston Webster's 3rd-best of 39 picks across his career.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +1.04. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Ruston Webster's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
65
on drafting team · 96 full-career
Games started
59
on drafting team · 85 full-career
Snap-z
3.3
6 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
29
modeled; full weighted AV 38
AV / 1k snaps
7.7
3,779 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.3
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Ruston Webster's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Ruston Webster pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Avery Williamson totals +1.04. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationAvery WilliamsonGM total -5.0Avery Williamson by season +2.7
How much retained production did Avery Williamson return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: LBs drafted within ±5 picks of Avery Williamson since 2010 (22 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Avery WilliamsonSlot-similar peers (22)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (8 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2014
TEN
16
16
1,070
1.8
6
5.6
2015
TEN
15
15
1,017
1.7
7
6.9
2016
TEN
16
16
983
1.6
9
9.2
2017
TEN
16
11
687
0.8
7
10.2
2018
NYJ
16
16
1,212
2.3
9
7.4
2019
TEN
0
0
0
-1.4
0
—
2020
NYJ, PIT
15
10
754
-0.3
5
6.6
2021
TEN
2
0
22
-1.2
0
0.0
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
