Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Zach Brown became a 8-season, 100-game NFL player after going #52. The retained-value model still ranks him 30th of 39 for Ruston Webster because TEN only got 49 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -0.67. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Ruston Webster's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
49
on drafting team · 100 full-career
Games started
33
on drafting team · 80 full-career
Snap-z
-0.0
3 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
18
modeled; full weighted AV 41
AV / 1k snaps
7.7
1,437 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.3
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
1 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Ruston Webster's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Ruston Webster pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Zach Brown totals -0.67. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationZach BrownGM total -5.0Zach Brown by season -1.7
How much retained production did Zach Brown return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: LBs drafted within ±5 picks of Zach Brown since 2010 (15 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Zach BrownSlot-similar peers (15)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (8 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2012
TEN
16
14
—
—
7
—
2013
TEN
16
14
856
1.0
7
8.2
2014
TEN
1
0
4
-1.3
0
0.0
2015
TEN
16
5
577
0.3
4
6.9
2016
BUF
16
16
1,104
1.9
12
10.9
2017
WAS
13
13
866
1.3
7
8.1
2018
WAS
16
13
706
0.7
6
8.5
2019
PHI
6
5
304
-0.5
3
9.9
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
