Derek Carr · Good GM

All NFL teams

Full-career context

These totals follow Derek Carr across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.

Games played169

Games started169

Weighted career AV93

Pro Bowls4

AP1 All-Pro0

Career seasons11

Accountability by draft event

What each drafting team received

2014 · Round 2 · #36

LV draft credit

GM Reggie McKenzie

Team games142

Team starts142

On-team AV100

On-team PB / AP13 / 0

Excellent+4.24 contribution1st of 59 picks for this GM

Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.

An Excellent pick

Derek Carr was Reggie McKenzie's 1st-best of 59 picks across his career, the best pick of the entire tenure.

His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +4.24. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Reggie McKenzie's leaderboard composite θ.

The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.

Opportunity

Did he earn the field?

Games played

142

on drafting team · 169 full-career

Games started

142

on drafting team · 169 full-career

Snap-z

12.0

9 modeled seasons

Quality

Was that time valuable?

On-team AV

100

modeled; full weighted AV 93

AV / 1k snaps

11.0

9,087 snaps in rate base

AV-rate z

-0.1

position-year adjusted quality

Recognition

Did the league notice?

Pro Bowls

4 full-career

AP1 All-Pro

0 AP1

all on drafting team · AP2 context 0

All-Decade

context only

Did this pick move Reggie McKenzie's grade?

The first chart removes the time axis: every Reggie McKenzie pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Derek Carr totals +4.24. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.

Aggregate contribution by player

Incremental contribution by season

Above expectationBelow expectationDerek CarrGM total -33.3Derek Carr by season +10.5

How much retained production did Derek Carr return vs. his slot?

Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: QBs drafted within ±5 picks of Derek Carr since 2010 (7 players). Dark marks are GOAT-tier benchmarks (Brady, Manning, Mahomes) for orientation.The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.

Derek CarrSlot-similar peers (7)GOAT QBs (Brady, Manning, Mahomes)

Cumulative value over time

Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.

Games started (cumulative) Pro Bowls AP1 All-Pro AP2 All-Pro

Full-career season history (11 scored seasons)

Year	Team	GP	GS	Snaps	Snap-z	AV	AV/snap	PB
2014	LV	16	16	989	1.3	5	5.1
2015	LV	16	15	1,012	1.3	13	12.8
2016	LV	15	15	1,048	1.3	12	11.5	✓
2017	LV	15	15	932	1.2	10	10.7	✓
2018	LV	16	16	1,030	1.4	11	10.7
2019	LV	16	16	996	1.2	11	11.0
2020	LV	16	15	1,007	1.4	14	13.9
2021	LV	17	17	1,127	1.6	12	10.6
2022	LV	15	15	946	1.3	12	12.7	✓
2023	NO	17	16	978	1.4	12	12.3
2024	NO	10	10	604	0.4	7	11.6

How to read this

The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.