Justin Ellis · Good GM

All NFL teams

Full-career context

These totals follow Justin Ellis across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.

Games played117

Games started54

Weighted career AV25

Pro Bowls0

AP1 All-Pro0

Career seasons9

Accountability by draft event

What each drafting team received

2014 · Round 4 · #107

LV draft credit

GM Reggie McKenzie

Team games66

Team starts42

On-team AV20

On-team PB / AP10 / 0

Good+0.05 contribution16th of 59 picks for this GM

Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.

A Good pick

Justin Ellis was Reggie McKenzie's 16th-best of 59 picks across his career.

His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +0.05. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Reggie McKenzie's leaderboard composite θ.

The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.

Opportunity

Did he earn the field?

Games played

on drafting team · 117 full-career

Games started

on drafting team · 54 full-career

Snap-z

0.3

5 modeled seasons

Quality

Was that time valuable?

On-team AV

modeled; full weighted AV 25

AV / 1k snaps

9.8

2,042 snaps in rate base

AV-rate z

+0.2

position-year adjusted quality

Recognition

Did the league notice?

Pro Bowls

all on drafting team

AP1 All-Pro

0 AP1

all on drafting team · AP2 context 0

All-Decade

context only

Did this pick move Reggie McKenzie's grade?

The first chart removes the time axis: every Reggie McKenzie pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Justin Ellis totals +0.05. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.

Aggregate contribution by player

Incremental contribution by season

Above expectationBelow expectationJustin EllisGM total -33.3Justin Ellis by season +0.1

How much retained production did Justin Ellis return vs. his slot?

Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DTs drafted within ±5 picks of Justin Ellis since 2010 (9 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.

Justin EllisSlot-similar peers (9)

Cumulative value over time

Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.

Games started (cumulative) Pro Bowls AP1 All-Pro AP2 All-Pro

Full-career season history (9 scored seasons)

Year	Team	GP	GS	Snaps	Snap-z	AV	AV/snap
2014	LV	16	11	635	0.8	6	9.4
2015	LV	12	4	375	-0.0	4	10.7
2016	LV	16	0	360	-0.3	3	8.3
2017	LV	16	6	533	0.6	6	11.3
2018	LV	6	1	139	-0.8	1	7.2
2019	BAL	4	0	60	-1.0	0	0.0
2020	BAL	13	3	373	0.0	2	5.4
2021	BAL	17	3	438	0.3	3	6.8
2022	NYG	17	2	406	0.1	3	7.4

How to read this

The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.