Terrible-2.88 contribution31st of 34 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Sammy Watkins became a 9-season, 111-game NFL player after going #4. The retained-value model still ranks him 31st of 34 for Doug Whaley because BUF only got 37 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -2.88. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Doug Whaley's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
37
on drafting team · 111 full-career
Games started
37
on drafting team · 96 full-career
Snap-z
2.5
3 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
22
modeled; full weighted AV 43
AV / 1k snaps
10.3
2,128 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.6
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Doug Whaley's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Doug Whaley pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Sammy Watkins totals -2.88. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationSammy WatkinsGM total -16.2Sammy Watkins by season -6.7
How much retained production did Sammy Watkins return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: WRs drafted within ±5 picks of Sammy Watkins since 2010 (18 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Sammy WatkinsSlot-similar peers (18)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (9 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2014
BUF
16
16
1,028
1.8
8
7.8
2015
BUF
13
12
719
0.9
10
13.9
2016
BUF
8
7
381
-0.2
4
10.5
2017
LAR
15
15
775
1.2
6
7.7
2018
KC
10
8
459
0.3
6
13.1
2019
KC
14
13
740
1.2
7
9.5
2020
KC
10
9
527
0.5
4
7.6
2021
BAL
13
5
458
0.3
3
6.6
2022
BAL, GB
12
6
357
-1.2
3
8.4
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
