John Brown · Good GM

All NFL teams

Full-career context

These totals follow John Brown across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.

Games played103

Games started65

Weighted career AV36

Pro Bowls0

AP1 All-Pro0

Career seasons9

Accountability by draft event

What each drafting team received

2014 · Round 3 · #91

ARI draft credit

GM Steve Keim

Team games56

Team starts27

On-team AV21

On-team PB / AP10 / 0

Average-0.33 contribution36th of 74 picks for this GM

Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.

Long-career hit

John Brown became a 9-season, 103-game NFL player after going #91. The retained-value model still ranks him 36th of 74 for Steve Keim because ARI only got 56 of those games.

His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -0.33. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Steve Keim's leaderboard composite θ.

Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.

The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.

Opportunity

Did he earn the field?

Games played

on drafting team · 103 full-career

Games started

on drafting team · 65 full-career

Snap-z

2.7

4 modeled seasons

Quality

Was that time valuable?

On-team AV

modeled; full weighted AV 36

AV / 1k snaps

8.1

2,602 snaps in rate base

AV-rate z

+0.3

position-year adjusted quality

Recognition

Did the league notice?

Pro Bowls

all on drafting team

AP1 All-Pro

0 AP1

all on drafting team · AP2 context 0

All-Decade

context only

Did this pick move Steve Keim's grade?

The first chart removes the time axis: every Steve Keim pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. John Brown totals -0.33. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.

Aggregate contribution by player

Incremental contribution by season

Above expectationBelow expectationJohn BrownGM total -16.6John Brown by season -0.8

How much retained production did John Brown return vs. his slot?

Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: WRs drafted within ±5 picks of John Brown since 2010 (22 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.

John BrownSlot-similar peers (22)

Cumulative value over time

Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.

Games started (cumulative) Pro Bowls AP1 All-Pro AP2 All-Pro

Full-career season history (9 scored seasons)

Year	Team	GP	GS	Snaps	Snap-z	AV	AV/snap
2014	ARI	16	14	657	0.7	5	7.6
2015	ARI	15	15	826	1.2	10	12.1
2016	ARI	15	9	628	0.5	4	6.4
2017	ARI	10	10	491	0.2	2	4.1
2018	BAL	16	15	757	1.2	6	7.9
2019	BUF	15	15	913	1.8	9	9.9
2020	BUF	9	7	453	0.2	4	8.8
2021	DEN, JAX, TB	4	0	19	-2.3	0	0.0
2022	BUF	3	0	22	-1.1	0	0.0

How to read this

The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.