Excellent+2.90 contribution2nd of 38 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
An Excellent pick
Andrew Luck was Ryan Grigson's 2nd-best of 38 picks across his career.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +2.90. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Ryan Grigson's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
86
on drafting team
Games started
86
on drafting team
Snap-z
5.7
5 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
80
modeled; full weighted AV 72
AV / 1k snaps
14.1
4,757 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.4
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
2
4 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Ryan Grigson's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Ryan Grigson pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Andrew Luck totals +2.90. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationAndrew LuckGM total +2.4Andrew Luck by season +6.7
How much retained production did Andrew Luck return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: QBs drafted within ±5 picks of Andrew Luck since 2010 (26 players). Dark marks are GOAT-tier benchmarks (Brady, Manning, Mahomes) for orientation.The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Andrew LuckSlot-similar peers (26)GOAT QBs (Brady, Manning, Mahomes)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (7 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2012
IND
16
16
—
—
13
—
✓
2013
IND
16
16
1,048
1.3
15
14.3
2014
IND
16
15
1,073
1.5
16
14.9
2015
IND
7
7
504
0.1
4
7.9
2016
IND
15
15
1,013
1.2
16
15.8
2017
—
0
0
0
—
0
—
2018
IND
16
16
1,119
1.6
16
14.3
✓
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
