Matthew Stafford · Good GM

All NFL teams

Full-career context

These totals follow Matthew Stafford across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.

Games played239

Games started239

Weighted career AV133

Pro Bowls3

AP1 All-Pro1

Career seasons17

Accountability by draft event

What each drafting team received

2009 · Round 1 · #1

DET draft credit

GM Martin Mayhew

Team games165

Team starts165

On-team AV133

On-team PB / AP10 / 0

Terrible-4.70 contribution52nd of 53 picks for this GM

Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.

A Terrible pick

Matthew Stafford was Martin Mayhew's 52nd-best of 53 picks across his career.

His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -4.70. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Martin Mayhew's leaderboard composite θ.

The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.

Opportunity

Did he earn the field?

Games played

165

on drafting team · 239 full-career

Games started

165

on drafting team · 239 full-career

Snap-z

10.0

8 modeled seasons

Quality

Was that time valuable?

On-team AV

133

modeled; full weighted AV 133

AV / 1k snaps

12.6

7,888 snaps in rate base

AV-rate z

+0.2

position-year adjusted quality

Recognition

Did the league notice?

Pro Bowls

3 full-career

AP1 All-Pro

0 AP1

1 full-career · AP2 context 0

All-Decade

context only

Did this pick move Martin Mayhew's grade?

The first chart removes the time axis: every Martin Mayhew pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Matthew Stafford totals -4.70. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.

Aggregate contribution by player

Incremental contribution by season

Above expectationBelow expectationMatthew StaffordGM total -23.5Matthew Stafford by season -8.9

How much retained production did Matthew Stafford return vs. his slot?

Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: QBs drafted within ±5 picks of Matthew Stafford since 2010 (27 players). Dark marks are GOAT-tier benchmarks (Brady, Manning, Mahomes) for orientation.The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.

Matthew StaffordSlot-similar peers (27)GOAT QBs (Brady, Manning, Mahomes)

Cumulative value over time

Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.

Games started (cumulative) Pro Bowls AP1 All-Pro AP2 All-Pro

Full-career season history (17 scored seasons)

Year	Team	GP	GS	Snaps	Snap-z	AV	AV/snap
2009	DET	10	10	—	—	3	—
2010	DET	3	3	—	—	2	—
2011	DET	16	16	—	—	16	—
2012	DET	16	16	—	—	13	—
2013	DET	16	16	1,133	1.5	13	11.5
2014	DET	16	16	1,093	1.5	13	11.9
2015	DET	16	16	1,033	1.4	13	12.6
2016	DET	16	16	1,037	1.3	14	13.5
2017	DET	16	16	1,032	1.4	15	14.5
2018	DET	16	16	1,052	1.4	10	9.5
2019	DET	8	8	542	0.2	8	14.8
2020	DET	16	15	966	1.3	13	13.5
2021	LAR	17	17	1,065	1.5	15	14.1
2022	LAR	9	9	534	0.3	7	13.1
2023	LAR	15	15	1,000	1.5	13	13.0
2024	LAR	16	16	1,024	1.4	12	11.7
2025	LAR	17	17	1,117	1.8	16	14.3

How to read this

The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.