Excellent+3.88 contribution1st of 36 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
An Excellent pick
Lavonte David was Mark Dominik's 1st-best of 36 picks across his career, the best pick of the entire tenure.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +3.88. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Mark Dominik's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
215
on drafting team
Games started
215
on drafting team
Snap-z
22.4
13 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
127
modeled; full weighted AV 93
AV / 1k snaps
8.7
13,511 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.4
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
1 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
1 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 2
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Mark Dominik's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Mark Dominik pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Lavonte David totals +3.88. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationLavonte DavidGM total -4.6Lavonte David by season +11.0
How much retained production did Lavonte David return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: LBs drafted within ±5 picks of Lavonte David since 2010 (14 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Lavonte DavidSlot-similar peers (14)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (14 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2012
TB
16
16
—
—
9
—
2013
TB
16
16
1,184
2.0
15
12.7
★
2014
TB
14
13
994
1.6
6
6.0
2015
TB
16
16
1,178
2.2
10
8.5
2016
TB
16
16
1,112
2.0
13
11.7
·
2017
TB
13
13
875
1.3
7
8.0
2018
TB
14
14
1,000
1.6
7
7.0
2019
TB
16
16
1,133
2.0
8
7.1
2020
TB
16
16
1,073
1.3
14
13.0
·
2021
TB
12
12
799
1.2
6
7.5
2022
TB
17
16
1,097
2.0
9
8.2
2023
TB
15
15
965
1.5
7
7.3
2024
TB
17
17
1,078
2.0
8
7.4
2025
TB
17
17
1,023
1.7
8
7.8
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
