Average-0.01 contribution22nd of 41 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Brad Smith became a 9-season, 127-game NFL player after going #103. The retained-value model still ranks him 22nd of 41 for Mike Tannenbaum because NYJ only got 76 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -0.01. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Mike Tannenbaum's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
76
on drafting team · 127 full-career
Games started
17
on drafting team · 24 full-career
Snap-z
0.0
0 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
13
modeled; full weighted AV 17
AV / 1k snaps
—
snap-era only
AV-rate z
—
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Mike Tannenbaum's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Mike Tannenbaum pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Brad Smith totals -0.01. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationBrad SmithGM total +9.2Brad Smith by season +0.2
How much retained production did Brad Smith return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: QBs drafted within ±5 picks of Brad Smith since 2010 (8 players). Dark marks are GOAT-tier benchmarks (Brady, Manning, Mahomes) for orientation.The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (9 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2006
NYJ
16
3
—
—
1
—
2007
NYJ
16
9
—
—
3
—
2008
NYJ
15
1
—
—
2
—
2009
NYJ
13
2
—
—
3
—
2010
NYJ
16
2
—
—
4
—
2011
BUF
15
5
—
—
3
—
2012
BUF
15
2
—
—
3
—
2013
BUF, PHI
8
5
114
-1.0
1
8.8
2014
PHI
13
9
275
-0.5
0
0.0
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
